Game Recap: PIT 0, OTT 4, December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT0

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat PIT 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.28 expected goals to 2.23. B. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Rakell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. L. Ullmark stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	0	0	0
OTT	1	2	1	4

1st 2:16OTTB. TkachukPP0.14 xG
2nd 1:34OTTD. Perron0.28 xG
2nd 4:50OTTC. Giroux0.22 xG
3rd 13:55OTTB. Tkachuk0.02 xG

Team Stats

PITOTT

25Shots on goal26

2.23Expected goals3.28

55Shot attempts50

215v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play1/3

21Hits18

13Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.23 xGOTT 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT24 on goal, 0 scored

OTT25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	2	2	1	-2	0	19:42	2:29
R. Rakell	RW	6	2	1	-2	0	18:52	2:11
S. Crosby	C	1	2	0	0	0	18:08	2:30
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	-1	0	17:33	1:31
K. Hayes	RW	2	0	0	0	0	16:08	1:39
T. Novak	C	0	0	1	-1	0	14:44	1:47
A. Mantha	RW	1	1	0	0	2	14:42	2:19
J. Brazeau	RW	3	2	2	0	0	14:41	1:30
R. McGroarty	RW	1	0	0	0	0	14:12	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	2	0	-1	0	11:58	0:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	-1	0	11:01	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	1	2	1	-1	0	8:14	0:00
K. Letang	D	1	0	1	-1	0	21:57	1:29
E. Karlsson	D	2	0	0	-2	0	20:36	2:34
B. Kulak	D	0	0	1	-1	0	18:56	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	2	2	0	0	18:42	0:01
P. Wotherspoon	D	2	2	0	-2	0	18:21	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	1	4	2	0	0	17:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	26	22	4	.846	59:53	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	17:36	1:46
B. Tkachuk	LW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+1	0	17:02	2:42
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	19:26	1:46
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:04	1:05
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:04	0:05
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:20	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	2	16:17	0:53
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:45	1:12
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	15:04	1:46
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:41	2:04
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:12	0:54
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:41	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:16	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:36	2:01
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	22:10	0:07
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:27	2:05
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	18:45	0:54
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	18:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	25	0	1.000	60:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust15:55R. Rakell15:57S. Crosby15:31

Line 2K. Hayes14:29B. Kindel15:30R. McGroarty14:12

Line 3T. Novak12:57J. Brazeau13:11A. Mantha12:16

Line 4N. Acciari8:20C. Dewar9:17D. Heinen8:14

Pair 1K. Letang19:23R. Shea17:36

Pair 2E. Karlsson16:40P. Wotherspoon16:07

Pair 3B. Kulak18:16J. Ivany16:14

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio14:21R. Greig16:13C. Giroux14:12

Line 2T. Stützle15:17F. Zetterlund16:59B. Tkachuk14:20

Line 3D. Batherson15:50D. Perron14:33D. Cozens12:14

Line 4N. Cousins10:18S. Halliday9:37K. MacDermid1:41

Pair 1N. Jensen18:18N. Matinpalo17:58

Pair 2A. Zub19:28J. Sanderson17:09

Pair 3T. Kleven16:02J. Spence15:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.8, OTT 3.0	PIT 0, OTT 4
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	PIT 26.3, OTT 28.9	PIT 25, OTT 26
Win chance	OTT 54%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.3	5	0.91	2	34%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.8	2	0.89	0	32%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	1	1.13	0	36%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.6	2	1.08	1	31%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	3	0.71	0	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.5	0	0.75	0	13%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	1	0.90	2	29%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	6	0.78	0	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.72	0	14%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.3	0	0.44	0	20%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.0	1	0.44	1	19%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.9	1	0.67	0	25%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	3	0.68	1	22%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.6	1	0.51	1	22%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.39	1	15%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	1	0.53	1	21%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.6	1	0.37	0	8%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.5	1	0.30	0	13%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	2	0.33	0	14%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	0	0.48	0	19%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	1	0.43	1	6%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	3	0.40	0	18%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	2	0.19	0	4%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.1	1	0.18	0	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.0	1	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	2	0.23	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.21	0	3%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.20	1	3%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.7	1	0.09	0	3%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.