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Game Recap
PIT3
TBL6
TBL beat PIT 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.94 expected goals to 2.00. TBL outshot PIT 33 to 24. A. Cirelli scored three for TBL. J. Guentzel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 21 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| TBL | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 5:06TBLA. Cirelli0.45 xG
- 1st 7:01PITR. Rakell0.11 xG
- 1st 16:10PITE. Chinakhov0.03 xG
- 2nd 0:11TBLA. CirelliSH0.28 xG
- 2nd 14:08TBLB. Point0.21 xG
- 2nd 19:05TBLZ. Girgensons0.11 xG
- 3rd 13:50TBLN. Kucherov0.03 xG
- 3rd 15:33TBLA. CirelliEN0.80 xG
- 3rd 19:58PITE. ChinakhovPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
PITTBL
24Shots on goal33
2.00Expected goals4.94
46Shot attempts66
215v5 shots on goal28
1/4Power play0/3
21Hits18
18Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes10
15Giveaways17
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.00 xGTBL 4.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:42 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:51 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:39 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:59 | 1:33 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:06 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:18 | 2:54 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:16 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:15 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:13 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:15 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:13 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:44 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 23:48 | 3:06 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:35 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:52 | 0:08 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 59:23 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:45 | 2:54 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:24 | 2:47 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:54 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 2:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 9:28 | 0:54 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:07 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 21:42 | 2:54 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:50 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 1S. Crosby13:41E. Chinakhov14:19B. Rust13:05
Line 3N. Acciari9:57E. Soderblom10:28C. Dewar9:55
Line 4B. Kindel10:43J. Brazeau9:50A. Mantha12:17
Pair 1P. Wotherspoon17:48E. Karlsson17:31
Pair 3C. Clifton13:55R. Shea13:23
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov15:31J. Guentzel15:13B. Point13:37
Line 2A. Cirelli11:32G. Goncalves12:54O. Bjorkstrand8:33
Line 3Y. Gourde12:24Z. Girgensons11:30P. Holmberg11:33
Line 4N. Paul10:09M. Chaffee9:22C. Perry9:26
Pair 1E. Lilleberg18:31C. D'Astous18:25
Pair 2D. Raddysh16:30J. Moser16:02
Pair 3R. McDonagh13:06E. Cernak13:12
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.0, TBL 3.6 | PIT 3, TBL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.1, TBL 28.4 | PIT 24, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 4 | 1.65 | 3 | 37% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.8 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 7 | 1.04 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 2.3 | 4 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 3 | 1.01 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.1 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.9 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 3 | 0.69 | 3 | 24% | 3 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT S. Girard | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.