Game Recap: PIT 2, TOR 4, October 12, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalSat, Oct 12, 2024Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat PIT 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.48 expected goals to 2.45. TOR outshot PIT 33 to 23. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). O. Ekman-Larsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Stolarz stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	0	1	2
TOR	0	2	2	4

1st 10:58PITK. LetangPP0.11 xG
2nd 0:50TORW. Nylander0.17 xG
2nd 2:53TORM. Knies0.15 xG
3rd 2:12TORM. Marner0.08 xG
3rd 12:29PITR. Rakell0.12 xG
3rd 19:38TORW. NylanderEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

PITTOR

23Shots on goal33

2.45Expected goals3.48

57Shot attempts50

165v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play0/3

14Hits17

10Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes8

9Giveaways16

12Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.45 xGTOR 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT22 on goal, 2 scored

TOR32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	18:50	4:42
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	-2	0	21:00	4:42
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	13:38	2:03
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	20:07	4:41
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:01	2:07
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:06	2:07
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:38	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:18	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:15	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:24	0:05
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:19	0:01
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:22	2:09
K. Letang	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	-2	0	23:49	4:40
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	21:58	2:14
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	21:39	4:52
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	18:03	0:07
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	17:18	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	32	29	3	.906	58:51	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:36	4:59
W. Nylander	RW	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	20:52	4:51
M. Domi	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	16:03	0:57
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+4	0	21:06	4:02
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	8	0	2	+2	0	21:46	4:59
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:00	0:58
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	12:20	0:56
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	10:56	1:04
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:03	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:00	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	7:04	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	20:08	2:25
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	25:02	3:50
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+3	0	24:10	0:06
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+3	0	18:42	0:04
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:56	0:49
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	4	12:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	23	21	2	.913	59:33	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Robertson PIT First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
BirthdayJake McCabe TOR Turns 31 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, TOR 3.6	PIT 2, TOR 4
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	PIT 30.3, TOR 33.5	PIT 23, TOR 33
Win chance	TOR 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.6	8	1.22	0	47%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.7	4	1.08	2	36%	2
PIT B. Rust	3.2	2	0.80	0	30%	0
PIT S. Crosby	3.1	3	1.04	1	32%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.5	2	1.21	2	31%	1
TOR M. Rielly	2.5	2	0.81	1	11%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.4	1	0.80	2	26%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.3	2	0.64	0	22%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	2	0.68	0	14%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.2	2	0.52	1	21%	1
PIT D. O'Connor	2.2	2	0.44	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	2.2	0	0.69	2	17%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.2	0	0.54	0	19%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	3	0.40	0	19%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	3	0.53	1	19%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.9	2	0.56	1	10%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.9	0	0.37	0	14%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.8	1	0.34	0	13%	0
PIT L. Eller	1.8	3	0.35	0	15%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	1	0.37	0	16%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.7	1	0.34	0	13%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	5	0.38	0	7%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.3	1	0.35	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	0	0.39	0	8%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.35	0	13%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.1	2	0.27	0	10%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.1	1	0.44	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.18	0	11%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.9	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.