Game Recap: PIT 3, TOR 6, December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT3

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

TOR6

TOR beat PIT 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.92 expected goals to 1.92. W. Nylander led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). E. Karlsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Woll stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	1	1	3
TOR	2	1	3	6

1st 9:07TORW. Nylander0.34 xG
1st 9:51PITB. Rust0.15 xG
1st 13:34TORM. Maccelli0.01 xG
2nd 7:38TORS. Lorentz0.16 xG
2nd 11:43PITR. McGroarty0.05 xG
3rd 1:00PITA. Mantha0.05 xG
3rd 11:35TORM. Domi0.15 xG
3rd 17:57TORB. McMannEN0.93 xG
3rd 18:36TORW. NylanderEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

PITTOR

32Shots on goal31

1.92Expected goals4.92

56Shot attempts55

275v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/2

16Hits19

7Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways19

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 1.92 xGTOR 4.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT31 on goal, 3 scored

TOR31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-3	0	19:05	0:45
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	18:21	0:45
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	14:52	0:45
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:09	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	12:16	0:00
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	17:18	0:45
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:53	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:41	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:28	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	12:49	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:54	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-2	0	22:04	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	-2	2	20:11	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	6	1	0	-4	2	22:42	0:45
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:24	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:27	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	29	25	4	.862	59:07	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	2	4	3	0	0	+2	0	18:21	1:44
M. Domi	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	16:56	0:11
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	18:26	1:44
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	2	16:56	0:11
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	16:10	0:38
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	12:53	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:07	0:09
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:17	1:49
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:42	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	12:33	0:05
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:41	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:50	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	21:10	0:16
P. Myers	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	2	15:11	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+5	0	24:26	0:05
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:36	1:50
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:37	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:23	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:36R. Rakell14:48B. Rust16:11

Line 2T. Novak14:36J. Brazeau13:09A. Mantha13:27

Line 3K. Hayes11:54N. Acciari12:06C. Dewar13:17

Line 4V. Koivunen12:03R. McGroarty11:45B. Kindel11:27

Pair 1E. Karlsson19:58P. Wotherspoon19:43

Pair 2K. Letang18:45B. Kulak18:11

Pair 3J. Ivany16:15R. Shea14:44

TOR

Line 1B. McMann16:06A. Matthews16:24M. Domi15:27

Line 2J. Tavares15:44W. Nylander14:54M. Maccelli14:23

Line 3S. Laughton11:42S. Lorentz11:53D. Joshua12:13

Line 4N. Robertson10:41M. Knies11:13N. Roy9:50

Pair 1C. Tanev16:40J. McCabe21:59

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson18:37P. Myers14:56

Pair 3M. Rielly18:23T. Stecher16:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Robertson PIT First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, TOR 3.1	PIT 3, TOR 6
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	PIT 29.5, TOR 27.1	PIT 32, TOR 31
Win chance	TOR 53%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	3	1.13	0	44%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	3	0.83	1	30%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	2	1.04	1	34%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	2	0.89	1	33%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	3	0.74	0	27%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	3	1.06	4	36%	2
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	6	0.78	0	16%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.3	1	0.38	0	17%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	0	0.84	1	28%	0
PIT A. Mantha	2.0	3	0.63	1	23%	1
TOR B. McMann	1.8	4	0.43	1	20%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.66	0	11%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.8	2	0.51	0	19%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	1	0.47	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	2	0.45	1	10%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.7	3	0.27	1	12%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.7	0	0.32	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	2	0.56	2	15%	1
TOR N. Roy	1.5	0	0.51	0	19%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	2	0.55	1	17%	1
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	2	0.39	1	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	2	0.47	1	9%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.4	1	0.38	0	15%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	0	0.22	0	6%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	0	0.22	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	3	0.29	1	11%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.0	3	0.13	1	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.23	1	4%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.33	0	16%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	3	0.39	0	7%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	2	0.10	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.22	0	5%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.5	1	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.