Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PIT4
FinalMon, Oct 19, 2026Every game that night
UTA5

UTA beat PIT 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.89 expected goals to 2.02. UTA outshot PIT 29 to 19. R. Rakell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Cossa stopped 15 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT1124
UTA2215
  1. 1st 1:11PITE. KarlssonPP0.05 xG
  2. 1st 6:00UTAC. Keller0.13 xG
  3. 1st 10:10UTAK. Stenlund0.29 xG
  4. 2nd 7:01PITR. RakellPP0.15 xG
  5. 2nd 11:44UTAN. Schmidt0.03 xG
  6. 2nd 14:40UTAK. Yamamoto0.37 xG
  7. 3rd 1:36UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.23 xG
  8. 3rd 2:55PITE. Chinakhov0.27 xG
  9. 3rd 14:55PITD. Carlile0.12 xG

Team Stats

PITUTA
19Shots on goal29
2.02Expected goals3.89
48Shot attempts60
155v5 shots on goal27
2/2Power play1/2
15Hits26
15Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways17
1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.02 xGUTA 3.89 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdPIT goal, 1:11UTA goal, 6:00UTA goal, 10:10PIT goal, 7:01UTA goal, 11:44UTA goal, 14:40UTA goal, 1:36PIT goal, 2:55PIT goal, 14:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT19 on goal, 4 scored
UTA28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. RakellRW112320+1019:001:00
B. RustRW022011-229:321:00
E. ChinakhovRW101110-1015:320:00
A. KuzmenkoLW0110000014:190:00
T. NovakC011101-2013:031:00
B. KindelC0001110018:530:00
S. CrosbyC0001000218:311:00
E. MalkinC0001000016:340:00
V. KoivunenRW000000-1013:170:00
C. DewarC000140-1013:130:00
N. RobertsonLW0002000013:120:00
B. LizotteC0002120211:560:00
E. KarlssonD112103-1027:401:00
S. StastneyD0110010021:060:00
K. KorczakD011013-1016:270:00
D. CarlileD101201-2016:050:00
K. LetangD0003310021:550:00
I. SolovyovD0000110015:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs29245.82858:44Loss
S. Murashov000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW112100+1219:032:39
N. SchmaltzC112210+1017:412:39
K. StenlundC112240+1013:430:00
L. CooleyC0112200016:292:39
L. CrouseLW011120+1015:510:00
B. HaytonC0112010014:140:30
K. YamamotoRW1012020014:030:30
J. McBainC011220+1012:140:00
D. ButLW011103+1012:060:00
D. GuentherRW0002020215:482:39
V. TrocheckC0000310014:580:30
A. LeeLW0001100013:550:30
N. SchmidtD112120+2018:310:00
M. SergachevD011401+2024:542:39
M. WeegarD000321+1023:590:30
A. PeekeD0001300218:100:00
D. SimashevD000132-2015:420:00
N. DeSimoneD000110+1015:390:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Cossa19154.78960:00Win
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1A. Kuzmenko14:19B. Kindel14:51E. Chinakhov14:26
Line 2T. Novak10:42V. Koivunen12:16E. Malkin15:18
Line 3B. Lizotte11:06N. Robertson11:50C. Dewar11:00
Line 4S. Crosby16:51R. Rakell16:29B. Rust8:32
Pair 1E. Karlsson23:18S. Stastney20:00
Pair 2K. Letang19:45I. Solovyov14:43
Pair 3K. Korczak13:24D. Carlile14:05

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:02C. Keller15:20L. Crouse15:17
Line 2V. Trocheck13:40L. Cooley12:28D. Guenther12:03
Line 3K. Yamamoto12:54B. Hayton12:28A. Lee12:09
Line 4J. McBain12:14D. But12:06K. Stenlund12:01
Pair 1N. DeSimone14:39D. Simashev15:13
Pair 2M. Weegar20:24M. Sergachev19:42
Pair 3N. Schmidt17:05A. Peeke18:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
PIT B. Rust2.5+160-1900Under
UTA C. Keller2.5+128-1451Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-130+1052Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+120-1352Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5+120-1353Over
PIT S. Crosby2.5+142-1601Under
UTA A. Lee1.5-140+1151Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5+108-1152Over
PIT B. Kindel1.5-135+1201Under
PIT E. Chinakhov1.5-170+1301Under
PIT E. Karlsson1.5-148+1351Under
PIT E. Malkin1.5-170+1301Under
PIT K. Letang1.5+110-1603Over
UTA K. Yamamoto1.5-105–2Over
UTA L. Cooley1.5-170+1352Over
UTA L. Crouse1.5+104-1151Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-138+1304Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5-110-1053Over
PIT N. Robertson1.5-144–2Over
PIT T. Novak1.5+120-1551Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5+108-1450Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.0, UTA 3.4PIT 4, UTA 5
Total goals6.49
Shots on goalPIT 25.6, UTA 28.1PIT 19, UTA 29
Win chanceUTA 57%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther2.920.92033%0
UTA C. Keller2.511.06230%1
PIT R. Rakell2.530.76229%1
UTA N. Schmaltz2.420.92230%1
PIT S. Crosby2.311.02033%0
PIT B. Rust2.100.72229%0
UTA A. Lee2.010.50022%0
PIT E. Malkin2.010.79026%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.010.68212%1
PIT B. Kindel2.010.52021%0
UTA L. Cooley2.020.90131%0
PIT E. Chinakhov1.910.50121%1
UTA M. Sergachev1.840.76113%0
UTA M. Weegar1.730.44010%0
UTA L. Crouse1.710.52123%0
UTA B. Hayton1.620.42116%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.500.66022%0
PIT T. Novak1.510.52120%0
PIT N. Robertson1.420.34017%0
PIT K. Letang1.430.3807%0
UTA K. Yamamoto1.320.48119%1
UTA D. But1.210.25111%0
PIT C. Dewar1.210.30013%0
UTA J. McBain1.120.33113%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.110.3127%1
PIT D. Carlile1.120.1916%1
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.000.41118%0
UTA A. Peeke1.010.2205%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.000.30010%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.920.30212%1
UTA D. Simashev0.910.1303%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.820.32013%0
UTA N. DeSimone0.810.2105%0
PIT K. Korczak0.800.2613%0
PIT S. Stastney0.800.1413%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.