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Game Recap
PIT0
VGK4
VGK beat PIT 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.60 expected goals to 1.80. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). I. Samsonov stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 12:58VGKT. Pearson0.49 xG
- 2nd 4:38VGKI. Barbashev0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:00VGKB. Saad0.04 xG
- 3rd 2:54VGKM. Stone0.20 xG
Team Stats
PITVGK
22Shots on goal27
1.80Expected goals4.60
46Shot attempts54
225v5 shots on goal24
0/0Power play0/3
26Hits15
9Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes0
19Giveaways17
1Takeaways0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.80 xGVGK 4.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:05 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 60:00 | Loss |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:30 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:10 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:06 | 4:45 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 4:08 |
| B. Saad | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:14 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:44 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 4:07 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:42 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 2:30 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:10 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:54 | 4:25 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:01 | 1:35 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.5, VGK 3.4 | PIT 0, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 25.8, VGK 31.1 | PIT 22, VGK 27 |
| Win chance | VGK 65% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 1 | 1.21 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 5 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.