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Game Recap
PIT2
FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night
VGK6

VGK beat PIT 6-2, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 3.04. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Hill stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT0112
VGK3216
  1. 1st 1:06VGKR. Andersson0.17 xG
  2. 1st 4:02VGKN. Hanifin0.20 xG
  3. 1st 17:46VGKM. StonePP0.31 xG
  4. 2nd 5:54PITS. CrosbyPP0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 7:05VGKT. Connelly0.05 xG
  6. 2nd 11:17VGKS. Theodore0.20 xG
  7. 3rd 4:43PITE. Malkin0.78 xG
  8. 3rd 17:47VGKB. HowdenEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

PITVGK
24Shots on goal19
3.04Expected goals3.21
47Shot attempts43
235v5 shots on goal17
1/1Power play1/1
10Hits27
10Blocked shots7
9Penalty minutes9
19Giveaways21
7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.04 xGVGK 3.21 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdVGK goal, 1:06VGK goal, 4:02VGK goal, 17:46PIT goal, 5:54VGK goal, 7:05VGK goal, 11:17PIT goal, 4:43VGK goal, 17:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT24 on goal, 2 scored
VGK19 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. NovakC022100-1012:410:21
S. CrosbyC101100-2218:170:21
V. KoivunenRW011200-1013:000:00
E. MalkinC101210-2012:510:00
R. RakellRW000201-3019:380:21
B. RustRW000110-2019:020:21
B. KindelC000401-1015:370:00
A. KuzmenkoLW0000200013:380:00
N. RobertsonLW0001000013:330:00
B. LizotteC0000020013:030:00
C. DewarC0003100012:580:00
E. SoderblomLW0001200012:090:00
E. KarlssonD011101-3021:560:21
K. KorczakD000120-2223:530:00
S. StastneyD0001020021:340:00
D. CarlileD000100-1521:100:00
K. LetangD000211-1020:070:00
S. GirardD000002-2011:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Murashov19145.73759:42Loss
A. Silovs000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. StoneRW123100+2014:491:49
M. MarnerRW022111+2017:081:49
J. EichelC022001+2016:481:49
T. ConnellyLW112211+1014:281:49
B. HowdenC101000+2215:000:00
W. KarlssonC011101+2013:540:00
N. DowdC000031-1016:070:00
T. HertlC000160+1015:221:49
M. GatcombC000340-1015:200:00
B. BowmanRW000010-1014:300:00
I. BarbashevLW000010+2014:120:00
R. LavoieC000300+1013:300:00
S. TheodoreD101100+3021:200:00
N. HanifinD1013000220:470:00
R. AnderssonD101201+1020:350:00
B. McNabbD011101+4020:010:00
J. LauzonD000080+1518:070:00
D. CoghlanD000020-1015:460:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill24222.91759:55Win
C. Hart000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:38R. Rakell17:52B. Rust16:35
Line 2A. Kuzmenko13:38B. Kindel14:32N. Robertson12:51
Line 3T. Novak12:20V. Koivunen13:00E. Malkin12:33
Line 4B. Lizotte11:59E. Soderblom12:09C. Dewar11:51
Pair 1K. Letang18:48S. Stastney20:40
Pair 2D. Carlile18:55E. Karlsson19:28
Pair 3S. Girard10:37K. Korczak22:49

VGK

Line 1N. Dowd15:46M. Gatcomb15:20B. Bowman14:30
Line 2T. Hertl13:33R. Lavoie13:30T. Connelly12:39
Line 3I. Barbashev14:12J. Eichel13:40M. Stone11:49
Line 4B. Howden14:37M. Marner14:07W. Karlsson12:24
Pair 1B. McNabb18:09S. Theodore19:20
Pair 2J. Lauzon18:07R. Andersson19:43
Pair 3N. Hanifin20:03D. Coghlan15:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 20 overs hit (20%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
VGK J. Eichel3.5+130-1550Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+142-1651Under
VGK M. Stone2.5+150-1801Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5+140-1782Under
PIT S. Crosby2.5+146-1801Under
VGK T. Connelly2.5+165-1902Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+110-1251Under
VGK B. Howden1.5-125+1000Under
PIT B. Kindel1.5-115+1054Over
VGK B. McNabb1.5+150-1901Under
PIT B. Rust1.5-174+1351Under
VGK D. Coghlan1.5+140-1750Under
PIT E. Karlsson1.5-160+1401Under
PIT E. Malkin1.5-130+1252Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5-135+1100Under
VGK J. Lauzon1.5+130-1600Under
VGK N. Hanifin1.5+115-1353Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5-125+1002Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-128+1101Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-188+1421Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 2.8, VGK 3.4PIT 2, VGK 6
Total goals6.28
Shots on goalPIT 25.3, VGK 29.0PIT 24, VGK 19
Win chanceVGK 60%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel2.801.15231%0
PIT R. Rakell2.520.68027%0
PIT S. Crosby2.410.92130%1
VGK T. Hertl2.210.71026%0
VGK M. Marner2.211.12230%0
PIT E. Malkin2.120.74124%1
PIT B. Rust2.110.64026%0
VGK M. Stone2.010.97330%1
VGK T. Connelly2.020.52219%1
VGK W. Karlsson2.010.64123%0
PIT B. Kindel2.040.47019%0
PIT E. Karlsson1.910.62111%0
VGK S. Theodore1.710.63113%1
VGK R. Andersson1.720.41111%1
VGK I. Barbashev1.600.66022%0
PIT T. Novak1.610.47219%0
PIT N. Robertson1.610.33017%0
VGK B. Howden1.500.52123%1
VGK D. Coghlan1.500.1804%0
VGK B. Bowman1.400.47016%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.430.22012%0
PIT K. Letang1.320.3507%0
PIT C. Dewar1.230.27012%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.230.3217%1
VGK J. Lauzon1.100.1704%0
PIT E. Soderblom1.110.23011%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.120.29110%0
VGK B. McNabb1.110.3015%0
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.000.36016%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.030.1707%0
PIT D. Carlile0.910.1705%0
VGK N. Dowd0.900.27012%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.900.29012%0
PIT S. Girard0.800.2904%0
PIT K. Korczak0.710.2203%0
PIT S. Stastney0.610.1203%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.