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Game Recap
PIT3
FinalWed, Oct 7, 2026Every game that night
WSH5

WSH beat PIT 5-3, with the chances close: 3.84 expected goals to 3.75. T. Wilson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Tuch had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. L. Thompson stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT1203
WSH2215
  1. 1st 0:23WSHA. Beauvillier0.05 xG
  2. 1st 1:19PITB. Rust0.06 xG
  3. 1st 11:51WSHT. Wilson0.18 xG
  4. 2nd 4:42WSHP. Dubois0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 13:14WSHA. Tuch0.23 xG
  6. 2nd 14:05PITT. Novak0.32 xG
  7. 2nd 18:01PITN. Robertson0.08 xG
  8. 3rd 3:55WSHR. LeonardPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

PITWSH
30Shots on goal27
3.75Expected goals3.84
59Shot attempts65
245v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play1/4
7Hits22
18Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes8
21Giveaways10
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.75 xGWSH 3.84 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdWSH goal, 0:23PIT goal, 1:19WSH goal, 11:51WSH goal, 4:42WSH goal, 13:14PIT goal, 14:05PIT goal, 18:01WSH goal, 3:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT29 on goal, 3 scored
WSH27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. KindelC011201+1019:363:48
B. RustRW1013020019:092:42
T. NovakC101302+1015:173:11
B. LizotteC011121+1210:530:00
N. RobertsonLW101100+128:320:00
R. RakellRW000312-3019:223:43
S. CrosbyC000200-4019:074:27
E. MalkinC0001000017:222:12
E. ChinakhovRW000200+1015:292:26
V. KoivunenRW000101+1214:080:25
H. LapierreC000110-3013:020:58
C. DewarC000000+1011:110:00
S. GirardD011100+1019:000:08
K. KorczakD011113+2017:230:00
E. KarlssonD000401-1024:444:42
D. CarlileD000003-2018:040:00
K. LetangD000321-1017:161:18
T. van RiemsdykD000101-1216:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs27225.81556:04Loss
S. Murashov000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. WilsonRW123222+3019:493:36
P. DuboisC112300+3217:414:00
A. TuchRW101612+2018:353:25
R. LeonardRW1012400213:533:12
D. StromeC011100+1013:314:05
J. KyrouRW011100-3011:583:11
A. BeauvillierRW101140+2010:460:00
B. JennerC0002220017:520:00
A. ProtasLW000100-3016:040:00
J. SourdifC0000410015:080:00
A. OvechkinLW000210+1014:055:11
I. ProtasLW000100-3011:442:03
C. HutsonD011302-1016:292:34
J. ChychrunD0001110425:224:39
M. FehérváryD000011+2023:560:09
V. DesharnaisD000012+2021:030:00
T. LiljegrenD0001020017:030:00
D. McIlrathD000010-109:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson30273.90060:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin11:54E. Chinakhov11:48T. Novak10:37
Line 2V. Koivunen12:38B. Kindel11:37B. Rust11:49
Line 3S. Crosby11:37R. Rakell11:20H. Lapierre11:12
Line 4C. Dewar7:47N. Robertson7:56B. Lizotte8:18
Pair 1S. Girard14:56K. Korczak14:29
Pair 2E. Karlsson14:49D. Carlile14:22
Pair 3K. Letang13:22T. Riemsdyk13:44

WSH

Line 1B. Jenner13:04J. Sourdif12:40R. Leonard10:41
Line 2T. Wilson10:48P. Dubois11:43A. Tuch10:49
Line 3J. Kyrou8:47I. Protas9:41A. Protas12:10
Line 4A. Ovechkin8:54D. Strome9:23A. Beauvillier9:56
Pair 1J. Chychrun16:48T. Liljegren14:24
Pair 2V. Desharnais14:22M. Fehérváry17:09
Pair 3D. McIlrath9:01C. Hutson13:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 25 overs hit (52%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5-130+1052Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5-105-1206Over
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+150-1554Over
WSH J. Chychrun2.5-105-1201Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5+120-1403Over
PIT S. Crosby2.5+120-1352Under
WSH A. Beauvillier1.5+100-1151Under
WSH A. Protas1.5+110-1251Under
WSH B. Jenner1.5-110-1202Over
PIT B. Kindel1.5-160+1352Over
PIT B. Rust1.5-160+1353Over
PIT C. Dewar1.5+115-1400Under
WSH C. Hutson1.5-111+1003Over
WSH D. Strome1.5-130+1001Under
PIT E. Chinakhov1.5-160+1352Over
PIT E. Malkin1.5-156+1301Under
WSH I. Protas1.5+140-1901Under
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-175+1401Under
WSH J. Sourdif1.5+130-1650Under
PIT K. Letang1.5+100-1353Over
PIT N. Robertson1.5+125-1501Under
WSH P. Dubois1.5-120+1003Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-115+1302Over
PIT T. Novak1.5-115-1103Over
WSH T. Wilson1.5-195+1402Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.1, WSH 3.3PIT 3, WSH 5
Total goals6.48
Shots on goalPIT 27.9, WSH 26.7PIT 30, WSH 27
Win chanceWSH 53%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH A. Ovechkin2.720.78034%0
PIT R. Rakell2.730.73027%0
WSH A. Tuch2.660.84133%1
PIT S. Crosby2.620.97030%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.310.70022%0
PIT E. Malkin2.310.80024%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.240.73016%0
WSH J. Kyrou2.110.66127%0
PIT E. Chinakhov2.120.51020%0
WSH R. Leonard2.020.56121%1
WSH B. Jenner2.020.56023%0
PIT B. Kindel1.920.41117%0
WSH T. Wilson1.920.75329%1
WSH A. Beauvillier1.810.40118%1
WSH A. Protas1.810.68024%0
PIT N. Robertson1.810.40119%1
PIT T. Novak1.730.51119%1
WSH D. Strome1.610.78124%0
PIT K. Letang1.530.43010%0
PIT C. Dewar1.400.32013%0
WSH P. Dubois1.430.64220%1
WSH J. Sourdif1.300.48019%0
WSH I. Protas1.310.56015%0
WSH C. Hutson1.230.46110%0
PIT H. Lapierre1.210.44012%0
WSH T. Liljegren1.210.3207%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.110.3009%0
PIT D. Carlile1.000.1807%0
PIT B. Lizotte1.010.32113%0
PIT S. Girard0.910.3016%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.900.3408%0
PIT T. Riemsdyk0.810.2304%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.700.1502%0
PIT K. Korczak0.610.2113%0
WSH D. McIlrath0.400.1002%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.