Game Recap: TOR 2, CBJ 6, October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat TOR 6-2, with the chances close: 3.32 expected goals to 3.01. CBJ outshot TOR 38 to 28. J. Danforth led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Marchenko had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Tarasov stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	1	2
CBJ	3	2	1	6

1st 5:29CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.23 xG
1st 6:21CBJJ. Danforth0.12 xG
1st 12:42CBJM. Olivier0.16 xG
2nd 5:35CBJS. Monahan0.28 xG
2nd 11:36CBJM. Olivier0.16 xG
2nd 18:59TORM. Knies0.17 xG
3rd 11:58CBJK. Marchenko0.14 xG
3rd 13:03TORN. Robertson0.39 xG

Team Stats

TORCBJ

28Shots on goal38

3.01Expected goals3.32

57Shot attempts70

195v5 shots on goal28

0/3Power play0/4

22Hits19

15Blocked shots14

12Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways19

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.01 xGCBJ 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR27 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ37 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+2	2	17:31	3:10
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	5	3	0	-3	0	16:56	1:30
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	2	13:51	1:09
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	19:51	2:26
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-3	0	19:20	2:29
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:25	2:24
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:22	1:30
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	13:47	0:33
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	12:59	0:32
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:58	0:05
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	9:31	0:41
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	4	8:06	0:01
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	16:44	0:05
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-3	0	21:33	2:14
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	21:08	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	20:02	2:08
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-3	0	19:52	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	17:23	1:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	38	32	6	.842	59:41	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Danforth	RW	1	2	3	2	1	0	+1	0	15:23	3:27
S. Monahan	C	1	1	2	5	0	3	+3	0	19:35	3:45
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	7	0	0	+3	2	18:43	4:21
M. Olivier	RW	2	0	2	2	3	0	0	2	12:17	0:02
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	19:43	4:18
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:46	2:48
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:07	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:50	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:27	4:26
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:06	2:48
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:31	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	11:29	0:01
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+4	0	22:15	4:28
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+3	0	22:31	2:44
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:01	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	+1	2	24:35	2:51
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	16:06	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	12:24	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	28	26	2	.929	58:55	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKirill Marchenko TOR Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20261 G, 1 A, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.8, CBJ 3.2	TOR 2, CBJ 6
Total goals	7.1	8
Shots on goal	TOR 34.3, CBJ 30.3	TOR 28, CBJ 38
Win chance	TOR 59%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.6	2	1.24	0	49%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.5	1	1.06	0	38%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	5	0.81	1	31%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.9	1	0.76	2	14%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	7	0.63	2	29%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	3	0.60	0	23%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	5	0.75	2	26%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.3	5	1.23	0	33%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.3	3	0.61	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.3	3	0.46	1	18%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	0	0.47	0	23%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.2	3	0.70	0	9%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.0	0	0.52	0	19%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	5	0.55	1	22%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.9	1	0.44	0	7%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	0	0.64	0	16%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	1	0.39	1	18%	1
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	2	0.38	1	15%	1
CBJ J. Danforth	1.4	2	0.40	3	18%	1
CBJ K. Labanc	1.3	1	0.31	1	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	4	0.44	0	10%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	2	0.35	1	7%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	2	0.29	2	11%	2
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.38	0	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	3	0.21	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	2	0.34	0	14%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.41	0	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	1	0.17	1	10%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.9	0	0.11	1	3%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.21	1	3%	0
CBJ D.Jiricek	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.