Game Recap: TOR 1, OTT 3, April 15, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalWed, Apr 15, 2026Every game that night

OTT3

OTT beat TOR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.32 expected goals to 1.58. OTT outshot TOR 38 to 20. C. Giroux led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Giroux had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Reimer stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
OTT	1	1	1	3

1st 6:04OTTD. BathersonPP0.18 xG
2nd 18:32OTTW. FoegelePP0.06 xG
3rd 8:11TORW. Nylander0.16 xG
3rd 19:54OTTD. CozensEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

TOROTT

20Shots on goal38

1.58Expected goals4.32

42Shot attempts69

195v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play2/3

28Hits27

13Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes4

22Giveaways17

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.58 xGOTT 4.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR20 on goal, 1 scored

OTT38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	20:28	2:29
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	20:17	2:30
J. Quillan	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	12:51	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:05	2:29
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:39	1:57
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	8	0	-1	0	16:22	0:00
L. Haymes	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:44	1:28
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:29	1:30
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:05	1:31
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:03	1:31
R. Tverberg	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:40	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:02	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	21:04	2:28
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:03	1:32
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	19:35	0:35
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:09	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	18:23	0:00
W. Villeneuve	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	37	35	2	.946	58:08	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	6	0	0	+1	0	17:12	3:03
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	0	18:35	3:04
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:00	3:01
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:08	3:05
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:11	1:10
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	12:51	1:13
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	17:10	1:10
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:28	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	13:56	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:42	1:10
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	13:00	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	7:45	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:22	2:45
L. Thomson	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:23	1:29
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	2	22:13	0:00
C. Crotty	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:53	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:39	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander16:07E. Cowan16:22J. Tavares15:52

Line 2S. Lorentz12:30M. Maccelli12:32L. Haymes12:08

Line 3J. Quillan11:35R. Tverberg10:40M. Pezzetta10:02

Line 4N. Robertson10:27M. Knies11:02M. Domi10:14

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson17:26W. Villeneuve16:39

Pair 2M. Rielly16:54T. Stecher16:11

Pair 3S. Benoit16:53J. McCabe15:56

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens13:29R. Greig13:54K. MacDermid7:45

Line 2N. Cousins13:56H. Hodgson13:00S. Pinto11:45

Line 3D. Batherson13:16S. Halliday12:32C. Giroux12:45

Line 4L. Eller12:46W. Foegele12:44F. Zetterlund11:38

Pair 1L. Thomson15:54A. Zub19:09

Pair 2C. Crotty16:24N. Matinpalo15:33

Pair 3D. Gilbert15:02J. Spence17:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, OTT 3.8	TOR 1, OTT 3
Total goals	6.7	4
Shots on goal	TOR 22.4, OTT 34.2	TOR 20, OTT 38
Win chance	OTT 66%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT D. Cozens	2.6	4	0.71	1	24%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.4	3	1.04	1	36%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	3	0.69	1	26%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	2	0.85	1	27%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.1	0	0.79	0	31%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.9	0	0.54	0	18%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.9	2	0.56	1	11%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.7	2	0.39	1	17%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	3	0.40	1	16%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	6	0.62	2	19%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	0	0.39	0	19%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.5	1	0.68	0	24%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	2	0.51	1	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	1	0.46	0	10%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.3	4	0.41	0	8%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.3	2	0.44	0	13%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	3	0.35	0	12%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	2	0.42	0	13%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	1	0.41	0	8%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.1	2	0.44	0	14%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.31	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
OTT L. Thomson	0.9	3	0.24	1	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.11	0	2%	0
OTT C. Crotty	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	0	0.16	1	9%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.6	1	0.15	0	6%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.6	0	0.24	0	3%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.12	0	5%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.3	2	0.06	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.