Game Recap: TOR 6, PIT 5 (OT), March 2, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR6

Final/OTSun, Mar 2, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

TOR beat PIT 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 2.34. S. Crosby led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Myers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Woll stopped 29 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	2	3	0	1	6
PIT	3	1	1	0	5

1st 2:15TORM. Domi0.03 xG
1st 4:39TORC. Timmins0.04 xG
1st 10:27PITC. Glass0.08 xG
1st 11:29PITR. Rakell0.12 xG
1st 13:51PITS. CrosbyPP0.05 xG
2nd 4:08TORA. Matthews0.11 xG
2nd 15:38PITB. Rust0.07 xG
2nd 19:04TORJ. Tavares0.16 xG
2nd 19:59TORM. Knies0.13 xG
3rd 0:10PITR. Rakell0.08 xG
OT 1:00TORW. Nylander0.11 xG

Team Stats

TORPIT

33Shots on goal34

3.13Expected goals2.34

62Shot attempts68

315v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play1/2

23Hits13

19Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways21

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.13 xGPIT 2.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR32 on goal, 6 scored

PIT33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	6	0	1	0	0	21:14	1:26
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	18:48	1:11
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	4	1	2	-1	0	18:32	1:06
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	20:07	1:23
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	18:22	1:04
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	17:24	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	13:50	0:54
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	12:25	0:54
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	4	12:18	0:49
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:48	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:35	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:30	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	22:30	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	21:55	0:36
C. Timmins	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	17:12	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	5	4	1	+1	0	20:21	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	18:20	0:37
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	+3	0	18:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	34	29	5	.853	61:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	2	3	5	0	0	0	0	20:45	2:32
B. Rust	RW	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	19:14	2:38
R. Rakell	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	20:24	2:32
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	16:44	0:00
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	-1	0	16:22	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	18:52	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	15:49	0:11
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:18	0:05
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:57	0:09
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:58	2:35
E. Bemstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:46	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	7:19	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	27:29	2:34
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	23:48	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	2	23:12	0:08
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	22:24	0:11
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:56	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	33	27	6	.818	61:00	OT loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Robertson PIT First game against TOR since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 A, 0 SOG
Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, PIT 2.8	TOR 6, PIT 5
Total goals	6.1	11
Shots on goal	TOR 28.1, PIT 29.4	TOR 33, PIT 34
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.1	6	1.30	2	47%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	2	1.13	2	40%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	5	1.06	3	32%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	5	0.98	1	33%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.8	3	0.76	2	29%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.7	4	0.80	3	30%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.6	1	0.75	2	14%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	0	1.35	1	32%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	0	0.53	1	25%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.2	2	0.50	1	11%	0
PIT K. Hayes	2.1	1	0.44	0	17%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	2.1	1	0.38	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.70	1	11%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	4	0.70	2	27%	1
PIT C. Glass	1.7	4	0.35	1	13%	1
PIT E. Malkin	1.7	3	0.69	0	23%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	0	0.40	1	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.45	0	8%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	1	0.43	0	15%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.55	1	13%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.4	5	0.20	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.3	0	0.40	1	8%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	2	0.34	1	4%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	3	0.35	0	15%	0
PIT E. Bemstrom	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.36	1	15%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.27	1	12%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.26	1	4%	1
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	0	0.16	0	10%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.25	0	10%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.14	1	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	3	0.10	0	2%	0
PIT V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.11	0	1%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.