Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TOR4
UTA3
TOR beat UTA 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.24 expected goals to 3.88. D. Guenther had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Woll stopped 30 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| UTA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 12:42TORW. NylanderPP0.10 xG
- 1st 19:38TORC. JarnkrokPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 4:48TORS. Benoit0.02 xG
- 2nd 8:14UTAM. Carcone0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:03UTAN. Schmaltz0.20 xG
- 2nd 12:11UTAB. HaytonPP0.14 xG
Team Stats
TORUTA
26Shots on goal33
2.24Expected goals3.88
44Shot attempts78
125v5 shots on goal22
2/5Power play1/5
21Hits22
23Blocked shots11
13Penalty minutes15
23Giveaways20
9Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.24 xGUTA 3.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:05 | 4:44 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 4:41 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 5:02 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:16 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 1:18 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 5:25 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 5:16 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 13:14 | 0:13 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 1:16 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:00 | 1:41 |
| S. Benoit | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 | 13:38 | 0:07 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:06 | 0:16 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:05 | 1:35 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 64:44 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:35 | 4:50 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 4:53 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 4:51 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 4:48 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:56 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:58 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:58 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:10 | 4:26 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 1:25 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.0, UTA 3.2 | TOR 4, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 26.9, UTA 30.1 | TOR 26, UTA 33 |
| Win chance | UTA 53% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.9 | 4 | 1.12 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.0 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 7 | 0.89 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 1 | 1.10 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.6 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.1 | 1 | 1.10 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 1.9 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.