Game Recap: TOR 1, UTA 6, January 13, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalTue, Jan 13, 2026Every game that night

UTA6

UTA beat TOR 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.51 expected goals to 1.92. UTA outshot TOR 41 to 20. D. Guenther led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. McBain had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
UTA	1	3	2	6

1st 3:22UTAM. Carcone0.07 xG
2nd 5:26UTAD. Guenther0.03 xG
2nd 6:44UTAD. Guenther0.24 xG
2nd 15:25UTAJ. Peterka0.02 xG
3rd 3:30TORC. Jarnkrok0.06 xG
3rd 13:29UTAJ. McBain0.38 xG
3rd 16:54UTAD. But0.64 xG

Team Stats

TORUTA

20Shots on goal41

1.92Expected goals5.51

50Shot attempts91

135v5 shots on goal39

0/3Power play0/2

21Hits21

21Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.92 xGUTA 5.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR18 on goal, 1 scored

UTA41 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Jarnkrok	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:05	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:24	3:26
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	18:06	1:37
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-4	2	16:49	3:08
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:46	1:35
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:03	3:08
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	14:45	1:40
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:44	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	14:31	3:01
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:28	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:18	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:43	1:20
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	2	21:45	1:21
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	-1	0	22:53	0:51
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-4	0	19:37	2:33
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	17:42	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	17:01	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	16:20	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	41	35	6	.854	60:00	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	2	1	3	8	0	0	+4	0	17:17	1:52
J. McBain	C	1	2	3	7	3	0	+4	2	15:27	0:52
M. Carcone	LW	1	1	2	5	0	1	+4	0	15:30	0:54
J. Peterka	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	2	15:16	1:52
D. But	LW	1	1	2	2	4	2	+2	0	12:14	0:49
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	4	13:31	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:06	0:54
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:05	1:52
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:24	1:52
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:09	0:02
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	9:18	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	8	0	-1	0	9:07	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+1	0	18:57	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	20:38	0:05
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	19:18	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	23:59	1:52
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	20:41	0:54
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi15:11A. Matthews15:07B. McMann15:40

Line 2C. Jarnkrok12:23S. Laughton13:07S. Lorentz11:38

Line 3J. Tavares11:21W. Nylander13:41M. Knies12:42

Line 4N. Roy11:59E. Cowan9:23

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson19:53J. McCabe19:51

Pair 2M. Rielly15:43B. Carlo14:52

Pair 3S. Benoit16:56T. Stecher15:13

UTA

Line 1M. Carcone14:14D. Guenther15:02J. McBain13:48

Line 2N. Schmaltz14:22L. Crouse14:49C. Keller13:47

Line 3B. Hayton12:38J. Peterka13:24D. But11:25

Line 4K. Stenlund11:32B. Tanev9:18L. O'Brien9:07

Pair 1N. Schmidt17:21J. Marino18:14

Pair 2M. Sergachev18:28S. Durzi18:50

Pair 3I. Cole15:48N. DeSimone14:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, UTA 3.4	TOR 1, UTA 6
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	TOR 24.2, UTA 31.2	TOR 20, UTA 41
Win chance	UTA 59%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	1	0.95	0	40%	0
UTA D. Guenther	3.2	8	0.82	3	31%	2
UTA C. Keller	3.0	1	1.03	0	31%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.7	0	0.90	0	28%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	2	0.71	2	26%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.1	1	0.71	0	28%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	0	0.46	0	23%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	2	0.74	0	15%	0
UTA L. Crouse	2.0	1	0.50	0	24%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.0	1	0.82	0	30%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	5	0.40	2	19%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.8	2	0.54	0	13%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.66	0	24%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	3	0.39	1	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	4	0.49	0	9%	0
UTA D. But	1.6	2	0.23	2	12%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.48	0	13%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	2	0.51	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	3	0.39	1	8%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	2	0.35	0	15%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	7	0.31	3	13%	1
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	0	0.31	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.33	1	8%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	1	0.15	0	6%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	1	0.36	0	14%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	2	0.20	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.8	1	0.29	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.39	1	6%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	1	0.23	1	11%	1
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	2	0.23	2	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.