Game Recap: TOR 4, UTA 5, October 13, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR4

FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat TOR 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.28 expected goals to 3.00. A. Matthews led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Vejmelka stopped 22 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	2	2	4
UTA	1	4	0	5

1st 14:55UTAD. But0.11 xG
2nd 1:00UTAV. Trocheck0.17 xG
2nd 4:01UTAM. Sergachev0.02 xG
2nd 5:16TORA. MatthewsPP0.19 xG
2nd 14:17UTAD. Guenther0.02 xG
2nd 16:29TORJ. Roslovic0.23 xG
2nd 19:20UTAM. Weegar0.06 xG
3rd 7:12TORJ. TavaresPP0.07 xG
3rd 11:01TORG. McKenna0.20 xG

Team Stats

TORUTA

26Shots on goal28

3.00Expected goals2.28

49Shot attempts56

125v5 shots on goal21

2/5Power play0/4

14Hits17

15Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways10

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.00 xGUTA 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR25 on goal, 4 scored

UTA27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	20:12	4:58
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	-1	0	18:03	4:54
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	21:49	4:57
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:41	5:09
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	17:36	0:36
G. McKenna	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	2	17:08	2:11
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	16:55	0:25
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:00	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	14:01	0:05
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	11:45	0:06
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:20	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	2	24:39	4:58
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	18:21	0:11
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	17:40	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	16:50	0:11
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:09	0:30
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:21	0:25
M. Rifai	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	28	23	5	.821	57:26	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	6	15:55	3:54
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:47	3:46
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	16:53	3:40
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	2	16:52	1:33
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	15:27	3:49
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	15:19	1:45
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	15:13	0:05
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	14:00	1:36
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	10:24	0:05
D. But	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	10:00	0:05
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:56	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:15	1:37
M. Sergachev	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	23:39	4:05
M. Weegar	D	1	0	1	3	3	4	+1	0	22:14	0:10
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	15:29	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	0	20:55	1:39
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:27	0:06
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	22	4	.846	59:58	Win
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic16:07A. Matthews13:10K. Marchenko12:01

Line 2N. Paul12:32G. McKenna14:17C. Sissons12:23

Line 3W. Nylander14:26E. Cowan14:21J. Tavares11:41

Line 4B. Duhaime7:58T. Blueger8:23

Pair 1D. Raddysh16:06J. McCabe14:33

Pair 2M. Rielly13:29T. Stecher13:19

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:56N. Blankenburg9:57

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck11:48L. Cooley12:42D. Guenther11:36

Line 2A. Lee11:38K. Yamamoto12:45B. Hayton11:39

Line 3K. Stenlund11:13J. McBain10:19D. But9:53

Line 4N. Schmaltz10:57L. Crouse11:42C. Keller10:34

Pair 1N. Schmidt17:58J. Marino17:41

Pair 2M. Weegar16:09M. Sergachev13:55

Pair 3A. Peeke13:46D. Simashev11:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	+125	-150	4	Over
UTA D. Guenther	3.5	+128	-155	2	Under
UTA A. Lee	2.5	+140	-160	2	Under
UTA C. Keller	2.5	-128	+105	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+140	-160	3	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	2.5	+130	-160	2	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	-110	+100	1	Under
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	+115	-130	4	Over
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	-120	-105	2	Over
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	+105	-135	2	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	1.5	-120	+102	2	Over
TOR J. Tavares	1.5	-200	+150	3	Over
UTA L. Cooley	1.5	-175	+150	3	Over
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	-146	+115	1	Under
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	+120	–	1	Under
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-130	+105	3	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	-115	-105	3	Over

8 of 33 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+156	-220	1	Over
UTA A. Peeke	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+1400	-10000	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+550	-650	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+220	-240	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
UTA D. But	0.5	+600	-1000	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
UTA D. Simashev	0.5	+1800	–	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
UTA J. Marino	0.5	+1150	-4000	0	Under
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+430	-600	1	Over
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+260	-400	1	Over
UTA K. Stenlund	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+340	-400	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
TOR M. Rifai	0.5	+1300	–	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+525	-700	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+1000	-1400	1	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+340	-450	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under

9 of 16 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+320	-375	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+130	-145	1	Over
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-125	-105	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+125	-170	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+120	-130	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+270	-275	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+150	-180	1	Over
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+126	-150	1	Over
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-111	-110	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+250	-375	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+145	-165	1	Over

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
UTA C. Keller	1.5	+164	-200	1	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-160	+160	2	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	-190	+150	2	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-115	+105	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+180	-230	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+150	-160	1	Over
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	-135	+110	2	Over
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-156	+135	2	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+190	-220	1	Over
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	-175	+140	1	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-150	+135	1	Over

2 of 17 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+250	-280	1	Over
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+120	-170	0	Under
UTA D. But	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+145	-215	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+240	-280	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA J. Marino	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+375	-900	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+260	-450	2	Over
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+140	-200	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+250	-250	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+250	-280	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TOR A. Stolarz	28.5	-110	-110	23	Under
UTA K. Vejmelka	23.5	-125	-104	22	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
UTA M. Sergachev	1.5	+100	–	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-130	–	4	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, UTA 3.6	TOR 4, UTA 5
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	TOR 24.1, UTA 33.1	TOR 26, UTA 28
Win chance	UTA 62%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	4	1.07	2	42%	1
UTA D. Guenther	3.4	2	0.97	2	34%	1
UTA C. Keller	3.0	0	1.15	1	31%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.8	1	0.98	1	31%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.7	3	0.68	1	13%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	4	1.11	1	38%	0
TOR K. Marchenko	2.4	2	0.79	1	29%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	3	0.96	1	32%	0
UTA A. Lee	2.2	2	0.50	0	21%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.1	3	0.78	2	30%	1
UTA L. Crouse	2.1	1	0.58	0	25%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	2	0.76	2	13%	1
TOR J. Roslovic	1.8	2	0.49	1	20%	1
UTA M. Weegar	1.8	3	0.41	1	10%	1
UTA V. Trocheck	1.8	3	0.72	1	23%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.39	1	14%	0
TOR G. McKenna	1.5	2	0.46	1	16%	1
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	2	0.49	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	1	0.42	0	8%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.4	0	0.38	0	18%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.3	2	0.43	1	17%	0
UTA D. But	1.3	2	0.22	1	10%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.3	1	0.33	1	12%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	1	0.32	0	8%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	1	0.29	1	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.29	0	5%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
UTA A. Peeke	1.0	0	0.19	1	5%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.0	1	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.0	1	0.28	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.43	0	7%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
TOR N. Blankenburg	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.