VGK beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.59. T. Pearson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Pearson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 4:33VGKT. Hertl0.17 xG
- 1st 11:18VGKB. Howden0.05 xG
- 1st 15:03VGKJ. EichelPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 0:17VGKN. Hanifin0.09 xG
- 2nd 13:33VGKT. Pearson0.04 xG
- 2nd 18:01TORA. MatthewsPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 13:27TORM. Marner0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.59 xGVGK 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 3:47 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:36 | 3:39 |
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 3:50 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:17 | 3:15 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 16:51 | 3:25 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:51 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:42 | 2:01 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:29 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:58 | 1:26 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 19:45 | 1:37 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 7 | 4 | 3 | .571 | 14:31 | Loss |
| A. Stolarz | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 44:54 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:57 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:30 | 3:07 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:07 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:41 | 3:16 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:15 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:54 | 0:58 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:56 |
| R. Lavoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:48 | 0:48 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:11 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:38 | 1:02 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:27 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:01 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 2.7, VGK 3.3 | TOR 2, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 25.0, VGK 31.4 | TOR 31, VGK 25 |
| Win chance | VGK 59% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.1 | 6 | 1.14 | 1 | 44% | 1 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 6 | 1.08 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.2 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.8 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.3 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 3 | 1.15 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 6 | 0.28 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK R. Lavoie | 1.1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.