Game Recap: TOR 5, VGK 6 (OT), January 15, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR5

Final/OTThu, Jan 15, 2026Every game that night

VGK6

VGK beat TOR 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.65 expected goals to 2.50. J. Eichel led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). P. Myers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Hill stopped 23 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	3	1	1	0	5
VGK	1	1	3	1	6

1st 2:05TORM. Rielly0.13 xG
1st 5:03TORW. Nylander0.09 xG
1st 8:12VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.13 xG
1st 9:57TORA. Matthews0.12 xG
2nd 5:51VGKK. Kolesar0.59 xG
2nd 12:46TORJ. TavaresPP0.21 xG
3rd 2:10VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.12 xG
3rd 8:58TORS. Laughton0.23 xG
3rd 10:14VGKM. Stone0.41 xG
3rd 19:53VGKT. Hertl0.20 xG
OT 2:44VGKJ. Eichel0.32 xG

Team Stats

TORVGK

28Shots on goal33

2.50Expected goals3.65

53Shot attempts63

265v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play2/3

17Hits18

14Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.50 xGVGK 3.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 5 scored

VGK33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	20:07	1:10
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	18:25	1:10
M. Maccelli	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	16:29	1:10
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	2:17	0:00
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-3	0	23:35	1:10
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:26	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	10:49	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	20:41	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:13	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:37	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	11:29	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	4	23:06	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	21:42	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	19:50	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:27	1:10
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	21:10	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	+1	0	16:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	33	27	6	.818	62:44	OT loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	3	4	5	0	0	+2	0	24:35	3:41
M. Stone	RW	1	2	3	4	1	0	+2	0	23:25	3:43
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	3	2	1	0	0	22:23	3:25
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	21:28	3:39
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	-1	2	17:40	3:43
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:31	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	13:22	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	1	5	0	-1	0	11:52	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:45	0:00
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:01	0:02
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:40	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:13	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	0	0	24:38	0:04
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	24:32	0:18
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	20:34	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	16:36	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:34	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	28	23	5	.821	61:23	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi18:13A. Matthews18:07B. McMann20:11

Line 2J. Tavares15:45M. Maccelli14:38M. Knies16:59

Line 3N. Roy13:19N. Robertson12:18E. Cowan10:23

Line 4S. Laughton10:42S. Lorentz8:03

Pair 1T. Stecher18:45J. McCabe20:46

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson20:18P. Myers15:39

Pair 3M. Rielly15:39B. Carlo16:48

VGK

Line 1M. Stone15:34J. Eichel16:31I. Barbashev18:31

Line 2M. Marner16:36P. Dorofeyev15:36R. Smith16:45

Line 3T. Hertl12:36K. Kolesar11:52B. Bowman13:22

Line 4T. Laczynski8:59A. Holtz7:13C. Reinhardt7:40

Pair 1S. Theodore21:09J. Lauzon19:59

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud14:59N. Hanifin22:18

Pair 3B. Hutton12:34K. Korczak16:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMitch Marner VGK Faces TOR, his team until May 20252 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, VGK 3.3	TOR 5, VGK 6
Total goals	6.2	11
Shots on goal	TOR 23.4, VGK 31.0	TOR 28, VGK 33
Win chance	VGK 56%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	2	1.02	1	41%	1
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	5	1.05	4	29%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	4	0.61	2	28%	2
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	2	0.66	2	25%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.2	4	0.94	3	27%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	3	0.51	0	24%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.1	1	0.75	2	28%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	2	0.67	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	1	0.48	1	11%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.0	1	0.90	2	31%	1
VGK M. Marner	2.0	3	1.00	2	25%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	1	0.67	2	24%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	2	0.51	1	9%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.52	0	14%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	3	0.40	0	16%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.55	1	20%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	0	0.27	0	8%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	4	0.54	2	17%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.4	1	0.25	0	12%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	1	0.37	1	13%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	2	0.43	0	8%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.2	1	0.34	0	15%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	2	0.34	1	14%	1
VGK J. Lauzon	1.2	3	0.19	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.29	0	5%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	1	0.38	0	14%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	1	0.25	1	9%	1
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.26	1	11%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	5	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	0	0.15	1	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.21	0	7%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.9	0	0.19	1	5%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.8	1	0.32	1	5%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.