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Game Recap
TOR3
Final/SOThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night
VGK4

VGK beat TOR 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.79 expected goals to 2.66. VGK outshot TOR 43 to 24. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Eichel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. A. Hill stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
TOR30003
VGK12014
  1. 1st 0:34TORJ. Roslovic0.06 xG
  2. 1st 3:20TORE. Cowan0.17 xG
  3. 1st 8:37TORN. Paul0.23 xG
  4. 1st 17:36VGKM. Stone0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 1:12VGKB. Howden0.12 xG
  6. 2nd 3:58VGKJ. Eichel0.32 xG

Team Stats

TORVGK
24Shots on goal43
2.66Expected goals4.79
54Shot attempts83
195v5 shots on goal30
0/1Power play0/4
13Hits27
16Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes2
19Giveaways17
6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.66 xGVGK 4.79 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTTOR goal, 0:34TOR goal, 3:20TOR goal, 8:37VGK goal, 17:36VGK goal, 1:12VGK goal, 3:58

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR24 on goal, 3 scored
VGK43 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC011220+1021:321:39
K. MarchenkoRW011300+1018:201:37
J. RoslovicC101300+1017:320:23
N. PaulLW101213+1017:050:00
G. McKennaLW011100+1214:080:51
E. CowanRW101411-1014:000:21
W. NylanderRW000500-2020:311:54
C. SissonsC000020+1015:470:00
J. TavaresC000020-2015:261:09
B. DuhaimeLW0000010012:070:00
T. BluegerC000001+1011:020:00
B. GroulxC000000+126:090:00
D. RaddyshD0111120024:451:43
C. TanevD011004+1022:100:06
J. McCabeD000112+2023:320:00
M. RiellyD0001020020:570:17
T. StecherD0001200016:350:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD000010-1415:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky43403.93065:00OT loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC112612+2026:386:39
M. MarnerRW011510-1024:106:04
M. StoneRW101532+1223:576:23
W. KarlssonC011100-1018:551:38
I. BarbashevLW011430+1018:341:48
B. HowdenC101321-1015:180:00
T. ConnellyLW000300-1015:266:05
T. HertlC000310-1014:416:12
B. BowmanRW0000000013:361:37
N. DowdC0000200011:150:00
M. GatcombC0001100010:080:00
R. LavoieC000040-108:140:00
N. HanifinD0001030021:480:17
S. TheodoreD000303+1020:491:39
R. AnderssonD000312-2018:421:38
B. McNabbD000120+1018:100:00
P. WotherspoonD000211-2017:000:00
J. LauzonD0002510015:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill24213.87564:40Win
C. Hart000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic16:21A. Matthews17:11W. Nylander16:09
Line 2C. Sissons12:54N. Paul14:03G. McKenna12:57
Line 3J. Tavares12:12E. Cowan12:40K. Marchenko15:05
Line 4T. Blueger5:59B. Duhaime7:06B. Groulx6:09
Pair 1C. Tanev16:54J. McCabe17:29
Pair 2D. Raddysh19:25M. Rielly17:51
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:06T. Stecher13:49

VGK

Line 1M. Stone14:54J. Eichel15:55I. Barbashev16:26
Line 2M. Marner15:20W. Karlsson15:09B. Howden13:54
Line 3N. Dowd10:25M. Gatcomb10:04B. Bowman11:32
Line 4T. Hertl8:29R. Lavoie8:14T. Connelly8:45
Pair 1B. McNabb16:55S. Theodore16:55
Pair 2N. Hanifin18:09J. Lauzon14:53
Pair 3R. Andersson16:27P. Wotherspoon15:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 20 overs hit (65%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5+110-1222Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+116-1401Under
VGK J. Eichel2.5-150+1406Over
TOR J. Tavares2.5+155-1700Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+125-1305Over
TOR W. Nylander2.5+120-1405Over
VGK B. Howden1.5+115-1503Over
VGK B. McNabb1.5+105-1351Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5+135-1554Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+115-1154Over
VGK J. Lauzon1.5+125-1602Over
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-114-1153Over
TOR M. Rielly1.5+118–1Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-125+1255Over
VGK N. Hanifin1.5+105-1101Under
VGK R. Andersson1.5-140+1083Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-122-1053Over
VGK T. Connelly1.5-120+1053Over
VGK T. Hertl1.5-160+1403Over
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-170+1351Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamMitch Marner VGK Faces TOR, his team until May 20251 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 2.8, VGK 3.8TOR 3, VGK 4
Total goals6.67
Shots on goalTOR 24.1, VGK 32.5TOR 24, VGK 43
Win chanceVGK 64%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.520.99140%0
VGK J. Eichel3.161.31231%1
TOR K. Marchenko2.630.78129%0
VGK M. Marner2.651.30132%0
TOR W. Nylander2.551.05036%0
VGK T. Hertl2.530.78026%0
TOR D. Raddysh2.410.62113%0
VGK M. Stone2.351.11132%1
VGK W. Karlsson2.210.70124%0
TOR J. Tavares2.200.77030%0
VGK S. Theodore2.130.80017%0
TOR J. Roslovic1.830.46119%1
VGK R. Andersson1.730.45013%0
VGK B. Howden1.730.56124%1
VGK I. Barbashev1.640.64121%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.510.42010%0
VGK B. Bowman1.400.48014%0
TOR M. Rielly1.410.4208%0
TOR N. Paul1.420.33116%1
TOR E. Cowan1.440.43116%1
VGK B. McNabb1.210.3507%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.210.22012%0
TOR C. Sissons1.100.23010%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.120.1604%0
TOR T. Blueger1.000.2709%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.000.2905%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.000.1208%0
VGK N. Dowd1.000.29012%0
VGK P. Wotherspoon0.920.3304%0
TOR T. Stecher0.910.1504%0
TOR J. McCabe0.810.2404%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.800.1508%0
TOR B. Groulx0.700.1307%0
TOR C. Tanev0.500.1813%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.