Game Recap: TOR 2, WSH 4, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat TOR 4-2, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 3.24. WSH outshot TOR 34 to 22. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Ovechkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. L. Thompson stopped 20 of 22.

Team Stats

TORWSH

22Shots on goal34

3.24Expected goals3.24

51Shot attempts64

215v5 shots on goal29

0/0Power play0/2

28Hits17

14Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes0

17Giveaways22

4Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.24 xGWSH 3.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR22 on goal, 2 scored

WSH33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:20	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	2	18:21	0:00
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	3	4	1	-1	0	17:40	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	16:46	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	15:37	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:33	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:49	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	13:19	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:45	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:14	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	2	22:44	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	22:16	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	16:01	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	22:46	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	21:31	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	33	30	3	.909	58:23	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	19:36	1:57
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	15:49	1:33
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	6	1	0	0	21:09	3:45
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	20:54	2:12
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	18:53	0:15
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	18:32	2:11
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	18:18	1:48
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:10	0:15
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	11:44	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	8:26	1:34
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	6:39	0:15
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	5:39	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	4	2	2	+1	24:08	2:41
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	20:45	1:34
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	19:13	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:03	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:22	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	16:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Knies15:37A. Matthews16:24N. Robertson14:28

Line 2N. Roy16:18M. Maccelli13:39D. Joshua13:19

Line 3B. McMann13:35E. Cowan15:09J. Tavares14:00

Line 4S. Laughton10:45S. Lorentz10:36C. Jarnkrok9:44

Pair 1J. McCabe20:31S. Benoit19:18

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson20:46M. Rielly20:50

Pair 3T. Stecher14:16D. Mermis12:40

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin16:18D. Strome18:42A. Beauvillier16:30

Line 2A. Protas18:07J. Sourdif17:03T. Wilson17:08

Line 3C. McMichael13:31R. Leonard15:15B. Duhaime11:44

Line 4S. Milano6:24H. Lapierre5:39E. Frank6:52

Pair 1J. Chychrun20:21M. Roy18:42

Pair 2R. Sandin18:03T. Riemsdyk17:22

Pair 3J. Carlson18:05M. Fehérváry16:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, WSH 3.4	TOR 2, WSH 4
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	TOR 25.0, WSH 30.8	TOR 22, WSH 34
Win chance	WSH 59%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	3	0.98	1	40%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	6	0.95	1	38%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	3	0.93	0	34%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	4	0.76	1	22%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.2	4	0.42	1	17%	1
WSH C. McMichael	2.2	5	0.59	2	23%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.2	3	0.81	1	27%	1
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	2	0.42	1	16%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	2	0.77	2	29%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	3	0.74	0	14%	0
TOR E. Cowan	2.0	2	0.55	0	18%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	4	0.67	1	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	0	0.92	1	27%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.8	3	0.36	0	18%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	2	0.61	1	11%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.40	0	19%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	0	0.32	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.43	1	8%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.4	1	0.42	1	16%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.34	0	7%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.2	1	0.41	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	2	0.30	0	12%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.2	0	0.41	0	13%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.34	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	2	0.38	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.9	0	0.31	0	13%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.33	0	6%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	0	0.28	0	13%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.8	0	0.28	0	8%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.11	1	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.