Game Recap: TOR 0, WSH 4, December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR0

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat TOR 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 2.49. J. Carlson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Robertson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Thompson stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	0	0	0
WSH	2	0	2	4

1st 13:53WSHA. Protas0.29 xG
1st 16:16WSHJ. Chychrun0.52 xG
3rd 4:02WSHJ. Chychrun0.07 xG
3rd 8:57WSHJ. Carlson0.02 xG

Team Stats

TORWSH

22Shots on goal29

2.49Expected goals3.91

46Shot attempts65

165v5 shots on goal22

0/5Power play0/3

27Hits13

13Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways18

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.49 xGWSH 3.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 0 scored

WSH28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	20:35	5:03
A. Matthews	C	2	1	0	-3	0	19:45	5:12
N. Roy	C	2	0	0	0	0	17:50	4:48
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	-2	0	16:51	5:11
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	-2	0	16:19	4:48
J. Tavares	C	4	0	0	0	0	16:18	5:07
N. Robertson	LW	6	4	0	0	0	15:21	4:43
S. Laughton	C	1	1	0	-1	2	13:14	0:06
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	-1	0	12:40	4:53
S. Lorentz	C	1	4	2	-1	0	12:31	0:00
B. McMann	C	1	0	0	-1	2	12:29	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	2	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	4	0	0	20:56	0:09
T. Stecher	D	1	2	1	0	0	20:01	0:00
M. Rielly	D	2	0	1	-3	0	19:48	5:08
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	3	0	-4	2	17:07	4:52
S. Benoit	D	0	6	2	0	0	16:18	0:00
H. Thrun	D	1	2	2	-1	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Sourdif	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	14:04	1:40
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	5	4	0	+2	0	20:33	4:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	16:05	3:56
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	15:28	0:11
A. Protas	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	4	14:49	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	12:04	1:50
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	18:58	4:12
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	18:30	5:56
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:53	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	11:06	1:44
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:40	0:11
B. Trineyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:18	0:11
J. Carlson	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	+3	0	21:52	1:50
J. Chychrun	D	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	24:11	4:06
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	20:05	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	2	18:51	0:04
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	2	16:53	0:04
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:52	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	22	22	0	1.000	59:48	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander11:23A. Matthews11:34M. Knies14:23

Line 2S. Laughton11:52S. Lorentz10:06M. Domi7:47

Line 3J. Tavares11:07N. Robertson10:38E. Cowan11:29

Line 4B. McMann12:04N. Roy9:55D. Joshua9:41

Pair 1J. McCabe16:20T. Stecher15:13

Pair 2M. Rielly13:47H. Thrun14:54

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson12:04S. Benoit14:43

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin12:22D. Strome14:34A. Beauvillier11:15

Line 2J. Sourdif12:24A. Protas12:53T. Wilson10:53

Line 3N. Dowd10:14B. Trineyev9:07B. Duhaime9:37

Line 4S. Milano9:10E. Frank10:14C. McMichael8:05

Pair 1M. Roy14:57J. Chychrun18:03

Pair 2J. Carlson15:10M. Fehérváry14:43

Pair 3R. Sandin13:08D. Chisholm12:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayCharlie Lindgren WSH Turns 32 that day0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, WSH 3.2	TOR 0, WSH 4
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	TOR 25.9, WSH 30.6	TOR 22, WSH 29
Win chance	WSH 57%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	2	0.96	0	39%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	4	0.90	0	36%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	3	0.68	2	22%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	4	0.79	0	31%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	1	0.94	0	33%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.3	2	0.43	0	18%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	5	0.76	1	29%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	0	0.73	0	25%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	2	0.57	1	22%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.1	2	0.65	1	22%	1
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	2	0.61	3	12%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.9	2	0.84	0	25%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.8	1	0.35	0	18%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.7	0	0.33	2	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	2	0.58	0	11%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	0	0.40	0	15%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.5	0	0.44	1	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.44	0	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	6	0.32	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.41	0	8%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.34	0	6%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	2	0.39	0	15%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.2	0	0.31	1	15%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	3	0.34	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.29	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.30	0	15%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.36	0	7%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.9	1	0.31	0	13%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
TOR H. Thrun	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.