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Game Recap
UTA4
FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night
BUF1

UTA beat BUF 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.43 expected goals to 2.79. A. Lee led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Ostlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1214
BUF1001
  1. 1st 8:00BUFT. ThompsonPP0.05 xG
  2. 1st 10:12UTAK. Yamamoto0.48 xG
  3. 2nd 15:23UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.15 xG
  4. 2nd 17:24UTAA. Lee0.16 xG
  5. 3rd 1:45UTAJ. MarinoPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

UTABUF
30Shots on goal24
4.43Expected goals2.79
73Shot attempts61
215v5 shots on goal16
2/5Power play1/4
33Hits17
23Blocked shots19
13Penalty minutes15
18Giveaways15
2Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 4.43 xGBUF 2.79 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdBUF goal, 8:00UTA goal, 10:12UTA goal, 15:23UTA goal, 17:24UTA goal, 1:45

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA28 on goal, 4 scored
BUF23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HaytonC022103+2012:301:22
K. YamamotoRW112230+2012:281:21
A. LeeLW112300+2012:081:21
L. CooleyC0110020220:075:36
N. SchmaltzC1014020019:124:36
C. KellerRW0112100018:065:37
D. GuentherRW0005100017:185:39
V. TrocheckC0000610217:152:26
L. CrouseLW0001320014:570:00
K. StenlundC0000200213:500:03
J. McBainC0000400012:090:00
D. ButLW0002220010:290:00
J. MarinoD112200+1019:062:27
M. SergachevD011303+1025:234:35
M. WeegarD000244+1520:230:00
N. SchmidtD000132+1019:370:02
A. PeekeD0000210215:190:05
D. SimashevD0002210013:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka24231.95859:54Win
S. Cossa000–0:00

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ThompsonC1016010219:563:30
J. QuinnRW0002000220:204:08
Z. BensonLW0001210019:543:32
N. OstlundC0005000019:084:10
J. NorrisC000012-1016:331:30
R. McLeodC0000100015:271:26
J. DoanRW0002410214:160:58
P. KrebsC000211-1512:490:59
B. MalenstynLW000042-1012:110:05
J. DanforthRW000000-1010:150:00
S. CarrickC000010-108:430:08
T. KozakC000010-107:320:01
R. DahlinD0114050025:424:05
O. PowerD000002-1225:061:05
O. ZellwegerD0000000218:300:13
M. SamuelssonD0001100018:090:00
L. CrevierD000112-2015:070:00
Z. MetsaD000002-1012:380:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ellis30264.86759:28Loss
U. Luukkonen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck13:18L. Cooley13:01D. Guenther11:31
Line 2L. Crouse12:45N. Schmaltz12:10C. Keller11:35
Line 3A. Lee10:16K. Yamamoto11:01B. Hayton9:51
Line 4K. Stenlund11:59J. McBain10:14D. But10:00
Pair 1M. Weegar16:26M. Sergachev16:57
Pair 2N. Schmidt16:04J. Marino15:47
Pair 3A. Peeke13:25D. Simashev13:20

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson15:57J. Quinn15:40J. Norris11:50
Line 2N. Ostlund13:16Z. Benson12:49J. Doan13:12
Line 3R. McLeod10:09J. Danforth8:39P. Krebs11:50
Line 4B. Malenstyn8:10T. Kozak7:31S. Carrick8:35
Pair 1M. Samuelsson14:10R. Dahlin21:07
Pair 2O. Power20:05O. Zellweger16:36
Pair 3Z. Metsa8:36L. Crevier11:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BUF T. Thompson3.5+120-1256Over
UTA C. Keller2.5+100-1102Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-135+1155Over
BUF J. Quinn2.5-115-1042Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+118-1254Over
BUF R. Dahlin2.5+100-1204Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-140+1353Over
BUF J. Doan1.5-130+1052Over
BUF J. Norris1.5+100-1250Under
UTA L. Cooley1.5-132+1050Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-156+1253Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5-115-1152Over
BUF O. Power1.5+105-1550Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5+102-1300Under
BUF Z. Benson1.5-135+1101Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJosh Doan BUF Faces UTA, his team until Apr 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.1, BUF 3.4UTA 4, BUF 1
Total goals6.55
Shots on goalUTA 26.2, BUF 28.2UTA 30, BUF 24
Win chanceBUF 56%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.361.03140%1
UTA D. Guenther3.050.86034%0
BUF R. Dahlin2.840.95118%0
UTA C. Keller2.721.02130%0
BUF J. Quinn2.620.77026%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.540.86129%1
BUF Z. Benson2.210.74023%0
BUF J. Doan2.120.65024%0
UTA L. Cooley2.100.83131%0
UTA A. Lee2.030.44221%1
UTA L. Crouse1.910.52025%0
BUF J. Norris1.800.69030%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.730.64110%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.600.62021%0
UTA M. Weegar1.620.3607%0
UTA B. Hayton1.510.34214%0
BUF O. Power1.500.5208%0
BUF J. Danforth1.300.34015%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.310.3908%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.350.55019%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.200.2306%0
BUF L. Crevier1.210.2506%0
UTA J. McBain1.200.29012%0
UTA K. Yamamoto1.220.36216%1
UTA D. But1.120.21011%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.110.2706%0
BUF R. McLeod1.100.57017%0
BUF P. Krebs1.020.44013%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.900.24011%0
UTA A. Peeke0.900.1604%0
UTA D. Simashev0.820.1202%0
BUF S. Carrick0.800.1808%0
UTA J. Marino0.720.3725%1
BUF T. Kozak0.700.1809%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.700.1607%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.600.1604%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.