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Game Recap
UTA4
PHI2
UTA beat PHI 4-2, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.86. N. Seeler led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Stauber stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 7:01UTAM. Carcone0.01 xG
- 2nd 7:20PHIJ. Farabee0.40 xG
- 2nd 9:42UTAJ. Välimäki0.12 xG
- 2nd 13:34PHIO. Tippett0.03 xG
- 2nd 15:30UTAL. CooleyPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 15:43UTAK. StenlundSH0.13 xG
Team Stats
UTAPHI
25Shots on goal24
2.53Expected goals2.86
55Shot attempts63
215v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/2
22Hits23
18Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes18
6Giveaways5
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.53 xGPHI 2.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 3:38 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 3:38 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:50 | 3:38 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:04 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:04 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:21 | 1:27 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 3:34 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:57 | 1:21 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:31 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:18 | 1:27 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:04 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 27:04 | 3:38 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:04 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 10:30 | 0:04 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:32 | 0:06 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 21:04 | 0:02 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Stauber | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 59:41 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 2:55 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 12 | 19:07 | 3:13 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:47 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:48 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 | 2:44 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 1:03 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:11 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 12:44 | 0:58 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 23:45 | 0:18 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:20 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 2:12 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:31 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 57:16 | Loss |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, PHI 3.0 | UTA 4, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 25.8, PHI 30.8 | UTA 25, PHI 24 |
| Win chance | UTA 51% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.8 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.2 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.1 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.8 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.4 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.5 | 0 | 0.09 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.