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Game Recap
UTA3
PHI0
UTA beat PHI 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.83 expected goals to 1.66. N. Schmaltz led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Vanecek stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 1:38UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 8:03UTAC. Keller0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:12UTAM. CarconeEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
UTAPHI
23Shots on goal16
2.83Expected goals1.66
54Shot attempts46
205v5 shots on goal12
1/2Power play0/3
21Hits29
18Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways12
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.83 xGPHI 1.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:54 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:55 |
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:16 | 0:55 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:01 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:55 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:58 | 0:55 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:16 | 2:37 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 2:37 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 2:35 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 2:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:18 | 1:58 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:39 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:13 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:06 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:09 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 1:56 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:06 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:24 | 1:53 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:48 | 2:46 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:18 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 1:53 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:09 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz15:44D. Guenther14:31C. Keller14:25
Line 2J. Peterka13:07L. Cooley12:51L. Crouse12:23
Line 3B. Hayton12:28K. Yamamoto12:43J. McBain12:46
Line 4A. Kerfoot11:12M. Carcone10:17K. Stenlund10:04
Pair 1N. Schmidt17:34J. Marino19:12
Pair 3N. DeSimone16:51D. Simashev12:30
PHI
Line 1C. Dvorak15:45T. Zegras17:27O. Tippett16:06
Line 2B. Brink14:15M. Michkov12:02N. Cates14:43
Line 3N. Grebenkin12:21D. Barkey10:10S. Couturier13:46
Line 4G. Hathaway9:51C. Grundstrom10:37N. Deslauriers5:21
Pair 1R. Ristolainen20:08T. Sanheim19:59
Pair 2J. Drysdale18:20C. York18:15
Pair 3E. Andrae12:51N. Juulsen12:28
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, PHI 2.8 | UTA 3, PHI 0 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 24.8, PHI 25.1 | UTA 23, PHI 16 |
| Win chance | UTA 55% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 0 | 0.82 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.3 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 2 | 0.87 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.6 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 0.9 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA D. Simashev | 0.9 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.