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Game Recap
UTA3
FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026Every game that night
PHI6

PHI beat UTA 6-3, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 3.04. J. Drysdale led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Vladar stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1023
PHI1236
  1. 1st 12:49PHIM. Michkov0.10 xG
  2. 1st 14:24UTAD. Simashev0.19 xG
  3. 2nd 1:06PHIT. Konecny0.02 xG
  4. 2nd 5:50PHIN. Cates0.07 xG
  5. 3rd 1:02PHIC. Dvorak0.18 xG
  6. 3rd 5:35PHIO. Bonk0.05 xG
  7. 3rd 16:00UTAM. SergachevPP0.05 xG
  8. 3rd 17:07UTAL. CooleyPP0.50 xG
  9. 3rd 18:26PHIC. KnubleEN0.72 xG

Team Stats

UTAPHI
22Shots on goal21
3.04Expected goals2.66
55Shot attempts47
165v5 shots on goal17
2/5Power play0/2
26Hits30
12Blocked shots16
13Penalty minutes19
16Giveaways21
4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.04 xGPHI 2.66 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdPHI goal, 12:49UTA goal, 14:24PHI goal, 1:06PHI goal, 5:50PHI goal, 1:02PHI goal, 5:35UTA goal, 16:00UTA goal, 17:07PHI goal, 18:26

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA22 on goal, 3 scored
PHI21 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW022400-4019:165:11
N. SchmaltzC022301-3018:264:53
L. CooleyC112200-2218:105:13
V. TrocheckC011241-1019:083:12
D. GuentherRW000400-4019:185:11
K. StenlundC000001-1015:200:08
A. LeeLW000000-1014:212:20
M. CarconeLW000040-1013:412:22
B. HaytonC000100-1013:412:24
L. CrouseLW0001200712:250:00
J. McBainC000140+1012:220:07
L. O'BrienC0000520010:100:00
M. SergachevD101231-3224:325:32
D. SimashevD101102-1013:420:08
M. WeegarD000031-1022:022:02
A. PeekeD0001110218:280:00
N. SchmidtD000001-1017:510:00
A. DudaD000001-3014:420:09
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka20155.75058:25Loss
S. Cossa000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. DvorakC112113+2017:031:17
T. KonecnyRW112141+3213:581:15
N. CatesLW112112+2213:020:00
N. AcciariC0112100016:040:00
M. MichkovRW101220+1015:312:47
S. CouturierC011010+1215:140:00
P. MartoneRW011210+1214:322:43
C. KnubleRW1012200010:440:00
T. ZegrasC000100+3217:082:41
D. BarkeyC0001100015:492:45
O. TippettRW000120+1013:311:13
T. FoersterRW000161+1013:211:17
J. DrysdaleD033001+5221:262:43
T. SanheimD022200+4023:280:00
C. YorkD011003+1020:570:00
O. BonkD1012010017:471:19
N. SeelerD0001230017:270:00
S. BenoitD0001610715:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar22193.86460:00Win
J. Woll000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz11:59C. Keller12:52D. Guenther12:57
Line 2V. Trocheck13:12L. Cooley11:47L. Crouse11:13
Line 3A. Lee11:58B. Hayton10:39M. Carcone11:16
Line 4K. Stenlund12:26J. McBain10:46L. O'Brien10:10
Pair 1N. Schmidt15:33A. Peeke17:33
Pair 2M. Weegar17:30M. Sergachev15:27
Pair 3D. Simashev13:34A. Duda14:33

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak12:36T. Zegras14:18T. Konecny11:40
Line 2M. Michkov12:41P. Martone11:46N. Cates11:08
Line 3O. Tippett12:12D. Barkey12:57T. Foerster10:10
Line 4N. Acciari10:47C. Knuble10:16S. Couturier10:29
Pair 1T. Sanheim17:41J. Drysdale17:00
Pair 2C. York15:12O. Bonk16:25
Pair 3N. Seeler14:09S. Benoit13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
UTA C. Keller2.5+135-1464Over
UTA D. Guenther2.5-140+1154Over
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+160-1763Over
PHI O. Tippett2.5+160-1751Under
UTA A. Lee1.5-135+1150Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5-110-1201Under
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+135-1501Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+125-1500Under
UTA L. Cooley1.5-155+1302Over
UTA L. Crouse1.5+110-1401Under
PHI M. Michkov1.5-130+1102Over
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-152+1252Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5-150+1200Under
PHI O. Bonk1.5+175-2202Over
PHI P. Martone1.5-115+1002Over
PHI T. Foerster1.5-113+1051Under
PHI T. Konecny1.5-104+1051Under
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+116-1452Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5-125+1101Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5+105-1352Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.4, PHI 2.9UTA 3, PHI 6
Total goals6.29
Shots on goalUTA 27.6, PHI 24.6UTA 22, PHI 21
Win chanceUTA 57%PHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther2.840.79031%0
PHI O. Tippett2.510.62027%0
UTA C. Keller2.440.92227%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.130.75225%0
PHI T. Foerster2.010.53027%0
UTA L. Cooley1.920.80229%1
PHI T. Zegras1.910.78026%0
UTA A. Lee1.900.41019%0
PHI M. Michkov1.920.71126%1
UTA M. Sergachev1.820.71112%1
PHI T. Konecny1.810.79227%1
UTA M. Carcone1.800.39018%0
PHI P. Martone1.820.56120%0
UTA M. Weegar1.800.43010%0
PHI C. Knuble1.720.33114%1
UTA B. Hayton1.710.38014%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.620.58120%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.610.57220%1
PHI J. Drysdale1.500.43310%0
UTA L. Crouse1.410.40019%0
PHI S. Couturier1.400.43115%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.420.44210%0
PHI O. Bonk1.220.4717%1
PHI C. York1.200.2816%0
PHI N. Cates1.110.39214%1
PHI D. Barkey1.110.50016%0
PHI N. Acciari1.120.24112%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.000.2807%0
UTA J. McBain1.010.26010%0
UTA A. Peeke1.010.2105%0
PHI N. Seeler0.910.1804%0
UTA D. Simashev0.910.1414%1
UTA K. Stenlund0.900.25010%0
UTA L. O'Brien0.800.1205%0
PHI S. Benoit0.710.1002%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.