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Game Recap
UTA5
Final/OTSun, Dec 14, 2025Every game that night
PIT4

UTA beat PIT 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 1.82. UTA outshot PIT 36 to 16. B. Kindel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Schmaltz had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 12 of 16.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
UTA00415
PIT21104
  1. 1st 0:48PITJ. Brazeau0.05 xG
  2. 1st 15:21PITB. Rust0.07 xG
  3. 2nd 5:40PITB. Kindel0.21 xG
  4. 3rd 1:07UTAN. Schmidt0.29 xG
  5. 3rd 1:22UTAM. Carcone0.03 xG
  6. 3rd 5:35UTAS. Durzi0.15 xG
  7. 3rd 7:06UTAM. CarconePP0.07 xG
  8. 3rd 14:06PITJ. Brazeau0.09 xG
  9. OT 0:42UTAD. Guenther0.06 xG

Team Stats

UTAPIT
36Shots on goal16
3.47Expected goals1.82
77Shot attempts30
235v5 shots on goal13
1/5Power play0/2
9Hits18
7Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways13
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.47 xGPIT 1.82 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTPIT goal, 0:48PIT goal, 15:21PIT goal, 5:40UTA goal, 1:07UTA goal, 1:22UTA goal, 5:35UTA goal, 7:06PIT goal, 14:06UTA goal, 0:42

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA36 on goal, 5 scored
PIT16 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CarconeLW202500-1012:202:32
N. SchmaltzC0118010022:516:53
J. PeterkaRW0118000021:556:55
D. GuentherRW1014000020:166:52
B. HaytonC011010-1014:512:39
D. ButLW0111000010:452:17
K. YamamotoRW011010+109:180:00
C. KellerRW000200+1023:036:54
L. CrouseLW000241-1018:242:38
K. StenlundC0001000013:320:00
J. McBainC000020-1011:480:00
L. O'BrienC000000+107:260:00
M. SergachevD011100-1023:296:29
J. MarinoD011100+1022:570:02
N. SchmidtD1011020219:440:22
S. DurziD101202-1017:593:02
I. ColeD0000100217:240:00
O. MäättäD0000010010:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka16124.75060:16Win
V. Vanecek000–0:00

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. KindelC123200+2216:231:28
J. BrazeauRW202210+1014:121:25
R. RakellRW011033+2020:452:33
B. RustRW101201+1220:082:32
R. McGroartyRW011020+1014:110:00
S. CrosbyC0000110018:582:39
N. AcciariC000300-2014:350:00
C. DewarC000110-2014:310:00
A. ManthaRW0001010013:112:35
T. NovakC0002100012:131:25
V. KoivunenRW0000000210:310:00
K. HayesRW000001-206:461:27
E. KarlssonD011203+1028:272:35
R. SheaD011010+1019:010:00
K. LetangD011021+1018:021:21
P. WotherspoonD000021+2024:270:00
R. GravesD000003-2013:430:00
C. CliftonD000142-2213:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Murashov36315.86160:06OT loss
A. Silovs000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller15:06J. Peterka14:34N. Schmaltz14:13
Line 2L. Crouse12:56B. Hayton11:36D. Guenther11:40
Line 3M. Carcone9:48J. McBain10:35D. But8:28
Line 4K. Stenlund10:40K. Yamamoto9:18L. O'Brien6:58
Pair 1N. Schmidt18:01J. Marino20:00
Pair 2M. Sergachev14:19S. Durzi13:42
Pair 3I. Cole15:27O. Määttä9:54

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:30R. Rakell14:58B. Rust15:09
Line 2J. Brazeau12:21B. Kindel13:05R. McGroarty13:45
Line 3T. Novak10:12V. Koivunen9:55A. Mantha9:59
Line 4N. Acciari8:02C. Dewar8:03K. Hayes5:19
Pair 1E. Karlsson18:36P. Wotherspoon18:38
Pair 2C. Clifton12:51R. Graves13:27
Pair 3K. Letang12:51R. Shea14:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.2, PIT 2.9UTA 5, PIT 4
Total goals6.09
Shots on goalUTA 28.4, PIT 27.4UTA 36, PIT 16
Win chanceUTA 54%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther2.840.77129%1
UTA C. Keller2.820.99031%0
PIT S. Crosby2.701.10036%0
PIT B. Rust2.620.84131%1
PIT E. Karlsson2.520.70114%0
UTA J. Peterka2.480.84130%0
PIT B. Kindel2.420.40320%1
UTA N. Schmaltz2.380.84127%0
PIT R. Rakell2.200.71127%0
UTA L. Crouse1.920.46023%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.910.63111%0
UTA M. Carcone1.950.42219%2
PIT A. Mantha1.810.64025%0
PIT K. Letang1.800.3718%0
UTA B. Hayton1.700.40116%0
UTA D. But1.710.22112%0
PIT R. McGroarty1.700.28113%0
PIT K. Hayes1.600.36015%0
PIT T. Novak1.620.49019%0
UTA S. Durzi1.520.4119%1
PIT C. Dewar1.310.28012%0
UTA J. McBain1.200.35014%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.220.34215%2
UTA K. Stenlund1.210.32014%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.110.3216%1
PIT V. Koivunen1.100.2608%0
UTA L. O'Brien1.100.1606%0
PIT P. Wotherspoon0.900.2103%0
UTA K. Yamamoto0.900.28112%0
UTA J. Marino0.910.3614%0
PIT C. Clifton0.810.1803%0
PIT R. Graves0.800.1304%0
PIT R. Shea0.800.2015%0
PIT N. Acciari0.830.1909%0
UTA I. Cole0.800.2303%0
UTA O. Määttä0.700.1603%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.