Game Recap: UTA 4, PIT 3 (OT), October 29, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA4

Final/OTThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night

PIT3

UTA beat PIT 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.18 expected goals to 2.89. L. Cooley scored three for UTA. N. Robertson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Cossa stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	2	0	1	1	4
PIT	0	1	2	0	3

1st 4:40UTAL. Cooley0.11 xG
1st 14:11UTAL. Cooley0.21 xG
2nd 8:38PITE. Karlsson0.13 xG
3rd 10:59PITR. RakellSH0.12 xG
3rd 19:35PITB. Kindel0.06 xG
3rd 19:59UTAL. Cooley0.07 xG
OT 3:27UTAM. Sergachev0.41 xG

Team Stats

UTAPIT

34Shots on goal34

5.18Expected goals2.89

63Shot attempts64

285v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play0/1

25Hits7

20Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways19

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 5.18 xGPIT 2.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA34 on goal, 4 scored

PIT33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	3	0	3	5	2	1	+2	0	18:36	1:01
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	4	3	2	+3	0	19:54	0:59
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	2	17:53	1:01
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	17:29	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:17	0:59
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:00	1:01
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	15:23	1:01
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:21	0:59
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:19	0:59
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:43	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:34	0:00
D. But	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:59	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	2	1	5	0	0	26:16	1:01
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	19:44	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	23:57	0:59
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	22:43	0:00
A. Duda	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:17	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Cossa	34	31	3	.912	63:07	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Kindel	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	16:32	0:56
E. Malkin	C	0	2	2	4	1	0	+1	0	16:23	0:59
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	3	2	3	0	0	18:31	1:01
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:15	0:56
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	19:30	1:04
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:03	1:04
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:43	1:04
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:37	0:56
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	12:59	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:45	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	12:11	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-2	2	21:33	1:04
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:08	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	23:03	0:56
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:10	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	19:49	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	34	30	4	.882	63:27	OT loss
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck16:34L. Crouse16:11L. Cooley16:14

Line 2K. Yamamoto14:20B. Hayton14:59A. Lee14:22

Line 3N. Schmaltz12:54D. Guenther13:21C. Keller15:06

Line 4K. Stenlund11:53J. McBain11:50D. But8:59

Pair 1M. Weegar21:39M. Sergachev21:46

Pair 2N. Schmidt21:02A. Peeke19:13

Pair 3A. Duda15:17D. Simashev12:25

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby17:18R. Rakell15:46T. Novak15:06

Line 2E. Malkin14:32E. Chinakhov14:38B. Kindel14:33

Line 3V. Koivunen14:53A. Kuzmenko13:41H. Lapierre12:43

Line 4B. Lizotte11:35N. Robertson11:16C. Dewar10:56

Pair 1K. Letang19:34D. Carlile20:17

Pair 2S. Girard18:18K. Korczak17:46

Pair 3S. Stastney16:40E. Karlsson18:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 15 overs hit (67%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
UTA C. Keller	2.5	+112	-130	2	Under
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	-140	+122	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	+135	-180	1	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	+140	-178	3	Over
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	-113	-115	3	Over
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+130	-155	3	Over
UTA A. Lee	1.5	-130	+114	4	Over
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	-115	-105	3	Over
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	-125	+100	3	Over
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	-130	+104	4	Over
UTA L. Cooley	1.5	-152	+130	5	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	1.5	-155	+130	2	Over
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-115	-104	1	Under
PIT T. Novak	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	-115	-115	4	Over

5 of 32 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
UTA A. Peeke	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+340	-600	1	Over
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+220	-270	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1800	-10000	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
UTA D. Simashev	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+480	-750	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
UTA K. Stenlund	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+240	-285	3	Over
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+480	-800	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+205	-260	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+185	-240	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+1400	-5000	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+235	-250	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+330	-400	0	Under

5 of 20 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+320	-600	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+230	-300	1	Over
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-120	-110	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+215	-285	2	Over
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+275	-390	1	Over
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+210	-255	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+125	-160	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+102	-115	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+130	-170	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+125	-165	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+185	-250	1	Over

11 of 22 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+140	-195	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+125	-150	2	Over
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-230	+170	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	-150	+130	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-150	+120	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+105	-132	2	Over
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+175	-235	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+235	-340	1	Over
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	-165	+135	3	Over
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-140	+120	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	-170	+135	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+105	-132	1	Over

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+165	-250	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+185	-280	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+170	-260	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+190	-290	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+150	-225	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+250	-425	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+260	-450	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+200	-300	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+250	-425	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+280	-550	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+400	-1100	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PIT A. Silovs	24.5	-105	-120	30	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownLogan Cooley UTA Plays in his hometown3 G, 5 SOG
HometownVincent Trocheck UTA Plays in his hometown1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.3, PIT 3.2	UTA 4, PIT 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	UTA 26.8, PIT 26.7	UTA 34, PIT 34
Win chance	UTA 50%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	0	0.88	0	33%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	3	0.79	1	31%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.4	2	1.02	1	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	3	1.04	0	33%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	3	0.82	0	27%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.77	1	13%	1
PIT B. Kindel	2.1	3	0.55	2	23%	1
PIT E. Malkin	1.9	4	0.79	2	26%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.9	0	0.54	1	22%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	5	0.85	3	30%	3
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	2	0.74	1	13%	1
UTA A. Lee	1.9	4	0.43	0	19%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.8	1	0.44	0	10%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.8	1	0.64	0	24%	0
PIT N. Robertson	1.7	5	0.43	0	21%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	3	0.39	1	14%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	1	0.47	1	21%	0
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	4	0.61	1	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	2	0.43	0	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.36	0	15%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.3	1	0.43	0	17%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.2	1	0.22	0	7%	0
PIT A. Kuzmenko	1.1	1	0.45	0	20%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	1	0.39	0	13%	0
UTA D. But	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.28	0	7%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
UTA A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.21	1	5%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	1.0	2	0.40	0	12%	0
PIT S. Stastney	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
UTA D. Simashev	0.9	0	0.15	0	5%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	1	0.36	0	14%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	2	0.32	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	1	0.27	0	11%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.29	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.