Game Recap: UTA 2, TOR 3, November 24, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA2

FinalSun, Nov 24, 2024Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat UTA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.57 expected goals to 2.37. TOR outshot UTA 35 to 26. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Tavares had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Woll stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	0	1	2
TOR	0	3	0	3

1st 17:48UTAL. CooleyPP0.30 xG
2nd 5:15TORM. Marner0.21 xG
2nd 9:34TORM. MarnerPP0.16 xG
2nd 10:50TORW. Nylander0.16 xG
3rd 1:51UTAJ. McBain0.08 xG

Team Stats

UTATOR

26Shots on goal35

2.37Expected goals4.57

54Shot attempts69

205v5 shots on goal24

1/2Power play1/6

21Hits34

13Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways14

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.37 xGTOR 4.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA25 on goal, 2 scored

TOR31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	1	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	18:11	2:30
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	16:02	2:30
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	2	13:58	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:08	2:30
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:11	2:29
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:34	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:52	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:46	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:39	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9:51	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	24:10	2:30
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	20:25	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	6	-2	0	22:32	0:01
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	20:57	0:00
M. Lamoureux	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	4	16:01	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	12:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	35	32	3	.914	58:24	Loss
J. Stauber	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	22:16	8:23
M. Marner	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	21:29	6:04
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	8	3	1	+1	0	21:02	5:56
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:44	5:38
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:53	2:48
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	16:33	2:33
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:02	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	14:28	0:12
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:08	0:14
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	11:19	0:07
A. Nylander	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	10:37	3:28
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:12	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	18:10	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	22:29	5:59
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	+1	2	21:49	0:14
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:41	2:54
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:09	0:30
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	24	2	.923	59:49	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJack McBain UTA Plays in his hometown1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.7, TOR 3.7	UTA 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	UTA 25.9, TOR 32.7	UTA 26, TOR 35
Win chance	TOR 65%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.6	5	1.18	2	40%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.3	8	0.94	1	33%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.6	2	0.51	0	26%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.3	1	0.80	0	28%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.3	2	0.66	1	25%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	4	1.28	2	32%	2
TOR A. Nylander	2.2	2	0.51	0	25%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	4	0.70	0	11%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.53	2	19%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.8	0	0.69	0	21%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	1	0.41	0	8%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	1	0.55	1	9%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	1	0.38	0	19%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.34	0	16%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	0	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.5	2	0.36	0	17%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.54	0	15%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.3	3	0.42	0	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	4	0.31	1	6%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	3	0.27	0	15%	0
TOR F. Minten	1.1	1	0.32	1	15%	0
TOR A. Steeves	1.1	1	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	3	0.36	0	8%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	1	0.16	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA M. Lamoureux	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.40	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.21	0	11%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.8	1	0.33	1	13%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.23	1	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.5	2	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.