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Game Recap
UTA6
VGK0
UTA beat VGK 6-0, with the chances close: 2.76 expected goals to 2.62. N. Schmaltz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Hertl had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Stauber stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 5:33UTAC. Keller0.09 xG
- 1st 9:26UTAA. KerfootSH0.03 xG
- 1st 10:35UTAN. Schmaltz0.33 xG
- 1st 18:44UTAL. Cooley0.07 xG
- 2nd 1:02UTAM. Carcone0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:28UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.15 xG
Team Stats
UTAVGK
28Shots on goal29
2.76Expected goals2.62
55Shot attempts65
235v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play0/4
5Hits14
20Blocked shots9
11Penalty minutes11
16Giveaways23
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.76 xGVGK 2.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:24 | 4:03 |
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 4:03 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:04 | 4:05 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 4:04 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:27 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14:03 | 0:39 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:41 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:40 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:49 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:06 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 21:06 | 0:03 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Stauber | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:45 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 5:30 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 5:37 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:18 | 5:25 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:54 | 2:10 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:20 | 5:28 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:29 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:08 | 2:12 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:20 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:25 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:48 | 2:23 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:25 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 5:23 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 28 | 22 | 6 | .786 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, VGK 3.6 | UTA 6, VGK 0 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.8, VGK 31.5 | UTA 28, VGK 29 |
| Win chance | VGK 61% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 5 | 1.20 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 5 | 0.73 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 5 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.4 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.