Game Recap: UTA 4, VGK 0, March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA4

FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

VGK0

UTA beat VGK 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.69. VGK outshot UTA 28 to 18. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Keller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 28 of 28.

Team Stats

UTAVGK

18Shots on goal28

2.02Expected goals3.69

39Shot attempts66

165v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/2

25Hits22

9Blocked shots12

9Penalty minutes9

23Giveaways13

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.02 xGVGK 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA17 on goal, 3 scored

VGK28 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	2	0	2	6	0	0	+2	0	14:26	2:01
B. Hayton	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	14:01	1:55
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+3	0	17:12	1:57
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	16:12	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	5	15:04	1:55
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	2	7	0	+1	0	13:23	0:00
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:20	2:06
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:53	1:54
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:42	2:04
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:32	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	13:34	2:03
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:23	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	22:44	1:52
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+3	0	20:09	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	17:41	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+2	0	22:27	0:05
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:39	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:41	2:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	28	28	0	1.000	59:57	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	4	0	0	-2	0	21:46	3:01
J. Eichel	C	5	0	0	-2	0	21:34	3:39
M. Stone	RW	1	3	1	-2	0	19:22	3:01
T. Hertl	C	3	1	1	-2	0	18:28	2:59
I. Barbashev	LW	4	4	1	-1	0	17:57	1:13
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	0	0	-2	0	17:07	2:35
C. Smith	RW	0	2	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	2	0	-1	0	11:46	0:21
N. Dowd	C	0	0	1	0	2	11:36	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	1	2	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	3	0	0	-1	0	10:58	1:00
C. Sissons	C	0	1	0	-1	0	10:52	0:00
S. Theodore	D	2	0	1	-2	0	22:29	1:16
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	-1	2	20:17	1:12
B. McNabb	D	1	0	2	-1	0	19:57	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	1	0	3	-1	0	19:28	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	6	0	-1	5	17:03	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	-1	0	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	3	0	3	.000	8:12	Loss
A. Schmid	14	14	0	1.000	50:02

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1D. Guenther14:33L. Cooley14:50J. Peterka12:38

Line 2A. Kerfoot12:47K. Yamamoto12:09K. Stenlund13:45

Line 3N. Schmaltz12:48C. Keller12:22L. Crouse9:52

Line 4B. Hayton11:56J. McBain12:00M. Carcone11:31

Pair 1M. Weegar20:25M. Sergachev17:07

Pair 2N. Schmidt18:34J. Marino17:41

Pair 3I. Cole13:52S. Durzi13:30

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev16:41J. Eichel15:41M. Stone15:26

Line 2T. Hertl13:31P. Dorofeyev13:06M. Marner15:45

Line 3N. Dowd11:09C. Smith10:55K. Kolesar10:26

Line 4B. Howden10:24B. Bowman9:35C. Sissons9:23

Pair 1R. Andersson18:23N. Hanifin18:11

Pair 2B. McNabb16:49S. Theodore18:52

Pair 3J. Lauzon14:45K. Korczak13:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.7, VGK 3.1	UTA 4, VGK 0
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	UTA 23.3, VGK 27.0	UTA 18, VGK 28
Win chance	VGK 56%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	5	1.07	0	31%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.6	1	0.78	0	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	2	0.67	0	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	6	0.93	2	28%	2
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	1	0.83	1	26%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	3	0.67	0	26%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.8	1	0.36	0	9%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.45	2	17%	1
VGK M. Marner	1.7	4	1.02	0	26%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	2	0.54	0	9%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.7	1	0.86	0	25%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	1	0.35	0	7%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	0	0.58	1	11%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.6	2	0.59	0	22%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	0	0.44	1	21%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.6	0	0.36	0	7%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	2	0.37	0	17%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.5	0	0.49	0	20%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	4	0.59	0	22%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	3	0.49	0	15%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.23	0	5%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	0	0.41	0	19%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	0	0.28	0	11%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.31	1	11%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.1	0	0.38	0	8%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	0.9	0	0.27	1	6%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.9	0	0.29	0	10%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.8	0	0.27	0	12%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.8	2	0.24	1	11%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.6	0	0.32	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.