VGK beat UTA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.79 expected goals to 1.73. C. Sissons led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Hart stopped 31 of 33.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.73 xGVGK 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:11 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:49 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:58 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:11 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:56 | 1:10 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:49 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:50 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:52 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:02 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:28 | 1:18 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:40 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 58:38 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Sissons | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 1:48 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:48 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:48 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 1:48 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:48 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
VGK
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.8, VGK 3.3 | UTA 2, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 23.6, VGK 28.6 | UTA 33, VGK 31 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.9 | 3 | 1.07 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.6 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.8 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.7 | 5 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 5 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.8 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.