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Game Recap
UTA3
VGK2
UTA beat VGK 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 1.89. UTA outshot VGK 29 to 21. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Crouse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 11:42VGKM. StonePP0.05 xG
- 1st 16:59UTAM. Weegar0.01 xG
- 2nd 14:56UTAD. Guenther0.15 xG
- 2nd 15:58VGKI. Barbashev0.15 xG
- 3rd 14:00UTAL. Cooley0.13 xG
Team Stats
UTAVGK
29Shots on goal21
3.40Expected goals1.89
56Shot attempts52
165v5 shots on goal14
0/4Power play1/4
39Hits33
17Blocked shots15
12Penalty minutes14
17Giveaways15
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.40 xGVGK 1.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:01 | 5:07 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:39 | 5:25 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:19 | 5:11 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 5:14 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:01 | 2:44 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:54 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 2:54 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:04 | 2:53 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 3:46 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 25:02 | 4:14 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 59:30 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:28 | 5:08 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 | 5:25 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:25 | 4:53 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:36 | 1:45 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 5:08 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:31 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:44 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 4:48 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:06 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:59 | 1:04 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:12 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:42 | 1:33 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1D. Guenther11:12L. Cooley11:46K. Yamamoto10:15
Line 2A. Kerfoot11:19J. Peterka12:09M. Carcone9:11
Line 3N. Schmaltz10:02C. Keller10:22L. Crouse9:34
Line 4L. O'Brien6:54K. Stenlund7:31B. Tanev5:54
Pair 1M. Weegar13:07M. Sergachev12:38
Pair 2J. Marino14:05N. Schmidt12:54
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev12:59J. Eichel12:31M. Stone10:27
Line 2M. Marner10:17P. Dorofeyev10:11B. Howden10:38
Line 3T. Hertl7:38K. Kolesar8:49R. Smith9:27
Line 4N. Dowd8:19C. Smith6:40C. Sissons7:56
Pair 1R. Andersson14:23N. Hanifin14:56
Pair 2B. McNabb13:04S. Theodore13:47
Pair 3J. Lauzon12:15K. Korczak9:23
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, VGK 3.3 | UTA 3, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 23.9, VGK 28.7 | UTA 29, VGK 21 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 1 | 1.09 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.6 | 5 | 0.78 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.6 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.