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Game Recap
UTA4
VGK5
VGK beat UTA 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.45 expected goals to 3.42. P. Dorofeyev scored three for VGK. L. Cooley had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Hart stopped 34 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | 2OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| VGK | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 17:11UTAJ. Marino0.06 xG
- 1st 19:19VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 10:40UTAL. Crouse0.12 xG
- 2nd 15:37VGKP. Dorofeyev0.13 xG
- 2nd 17:17VGKS. Theodore0.07 xG
- 3rd 5:54UTAD. Guenther0.12 xG
- 3rd 12:42UTAM. Carcone0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:07VGKP. Dorofeyev0.32 xG
- 2OT 5:28VGKB. HowdenSH0.15 xG
Team Stats
UTAVGK
38Shots on goal38
3.42Expected goals3.45
81Shot attempts72
285v5 shots on goal28
0/4Power play1/5
44Hits42
16Blocked shots20
12Penalty minutes12
22Giveaways26
9Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.42 xGVGK 3.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 29:40 | 6:28 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 30:46 | 6:14 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:24 | 2:45 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27:34 | 6:39 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:28 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:38 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27:37 | 6:29 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 2:25 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:07 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 37:35 | 6:12 |
| J. Marino | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:58 | 0:09 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 27:01 | 2:39 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:36 | 0:06 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 19:04 | 0:16 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 38 | 33 | 5 | .868 | 85:28 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:42 | 4:28 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 31:15 | 5:59 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 30:48 | 5:52 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 25:47 | 3:16 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:27 | 1:56 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:29 | 1:54 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 5:52 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:08 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:02 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:04 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 15:47 | 0:03 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 34:25 | 5:48 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 34:29 | 2:11 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 34:07 | 2:02 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 27:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz20:44C. Keller22:12L. Crouse20:22
Line 2D. Guenther19:27L. Cooley19:32K. Yamamoto17:06
Line 3A. Kerfoot13:36M. Carcone14:00J. Peterka12:11
Line 4K. Stenlund12:45B. Tanev10:22B. Hayton11:56
Pair 1M. Sergachev25:02M. Weegar23:39
Pair 2N. Schmidt22:28J. Marino22:50
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev22:31J. Eichel20:08P. Dorofeyev18:26
Line 3N. Dowd14:05C. Sissons15:39C. Smith14:04
Line 4T. Hertl10:26K. Kolesar10:19B. Howden16:24
Pair 1R. Andersson26:39N. Hanifin26:34
Pair 2B. McNabb21:29S. Theodore26:43
Pair 3J. Lauzon14:16K. Korczak14:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.8, VGK 3.3 | UTA 4, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 23.6, VGK 29.0 | UTA 38, VGK 38 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 5 | 1.25 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.9 | 6 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 5 | 0.70 | 3 | 33% | 3 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 4 | 0.96 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 3 | 1.03 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 6 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 2 | 1.07 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 4 | 0.64 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 4 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.6 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.