Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
UTA3
WSH2
UTA beat WSH 3-2, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.71. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Peterka had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 11:12UTAD. Guenther0.07 xG
- 1st 13:23UTAM. SergachevPP0.03 xG
- 1st 19:27WSHP. DuboisPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 18:24UTAJ. PeterkaPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:31WSHR. LeonardPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
UTAWSH
23Shots on goal25
2.80Expected goals2.71
77Shot attempts56
215v5 shots on goal21
2/2Power play2/2
15Hits28
15Blocked shots36
4Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways21
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.80 xGWSH 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 1:50 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:48 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:49 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:45 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:45 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:46 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:49 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:44 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:36 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:58 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Määttä | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 59:50 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:31 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:55 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:55 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 1:57 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:25 | 2:17 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:33 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:32 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 27:52 | 1:56 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:33 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:11 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 57:45 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz15:03D. Guenther15:06C. Keller14:11
Line 2J. Peterka13:37L. Cooley13:19L. Crouse13:08
Line 3J. McBain13:52B. Hayton12:14K. Yamamoto11:23
Line 4A. Kerfoot12:17K. Stenlund11:32M. Carcone10:13
Pair 1J. Marino21:31N. Schmidt19:35
Pair 2S. Durzi18:43M. Sergachev14:34
WSH
Line 1T. Wilson16:52P. Dubois16:23C. McMichael15:58
Line 2A. Ovechkin13:43D. Strome14:29A. Beauvillier12:36
Line 3N. Dowd13:27B. Duhaime12:02E. Frank9:48
Line 4J. Sourdif11:57R. Leonard10:06H. Lapierre8:47
Pair 1M. Roy21:17J. Chychrun23:41
Pair 2R. Sandin20:43M. Fehérváry18:34
Pair 3D. McIlrath6:55T. Riemsdyk12:47
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, WSH 3.2 | UTA 3, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.8, WSH 27.9 | UTA 23, WSH 25 |
| Win chance | WSH 54% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.9 | 3 | 0.74 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.7 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.9 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.79 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA O. Määttä | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.4 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.