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Game Recap
VGK6
ANA2
VGK beat ANA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 2.20. M. Marner scored three for VGK. M. Marner had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hart stopped 31 of 33.
Team Stats
VGKANA
28Shots on goal33
3.90Expected goals2.20
46Shot attempts71
205v5 shots on goal26
1/3Power play0/2
23Hits53
20Blocked shots6
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways8
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.90 xGANA 2.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 23:07 | 3:52 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:37 | 1:19 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:59 | 3:41 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:20 | 1:42 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 2:29 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:18 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 3:44 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 4:24 | 0:28 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 3:39 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 21:20 | 1:33 |
| B. McNabb | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:20 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Coghlan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 2:10 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 2:08 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:09 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:51 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 2:14 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:50 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:06 | 1:49 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:47 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:02 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:49 | 1:46 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 21:02 | 2:14 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Hinds | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1M. Marner15:50W. Karlsson15:45B. Howden13:47
Line 2I. Barbashev15:13J. Eichel15:48P. Dorofeyev12:01
Line 3N. Dowd11:54C. Smith10:51C. Sissons13:16
Line 4K. Kolesar9:47T. Hertl8:44
Pair 1B. McNabb16:37S. Theodore16:56
Pair 2B. Hutton16:09D. Coghlan15:56
Pair 3N. Hanifin15:54R. Andersson16:03
ANA
Line 1C. Kreider13:09L. Carlsson14:37T. Terry14:53
Line 2A. Killorn11:40M. Granlund11:14B. Sennecke11:43
Line 3C. Gauthier12:23R. Poehling12:57R. Johnston11:28
Line 4J. Harkins11:23T. Washe10:17J. Viel10:48
Pair 1J. LaCombe19:06J. Trouba19:29
Pair 2J. Carlson17:41P. Mintyukov16:50
Pair 3T. Hinds13:05D. Helleson11:17
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.3, ANA 3.2 | VGK 6, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 27.5, ANA 29.0 | VGK 28, ANA 33 |
| Win chance | VGK 51% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 4 | 1.22 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.6 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.4 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 0 | 1.04 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 5 | 1.05 | 4 | 28% | 3 |
| ANA J. Carlson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.7 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK D. Coghlan | 1.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.7 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.6 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA T. Hinds | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.