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Game Recap
VGK4
CBJ0
VGK beat CBJ 4-0, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.71. B. Saad led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Roy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Hill stopped 27 of 27.
Team Stats
VGKCBJ
29Shots on goal27
2.66Expected goals2.71
47Shot attempts62
195v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play0/3
11Hits31
21Blocked shots7
6Penalty minutes6
7Giveaways22
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.66 xGCBJ 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 4:15 |
| B. Saad | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:37 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 4:15 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:11 | 3:53 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 1:12 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 3:50 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:12 | 0:46 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 1:28 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:17 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 4:10 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:32 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 27 | 27 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:41 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 4:04 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:50 | 4:10 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:26 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:31 | 4:09 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:49 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:58 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 2:35 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 27:53 | 4:15 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:37 | 1:50 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 1:44 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 59:35 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.5, CBJ 2.7 | VGK 4, CBJ 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 31.7, CBJ 25.5 | VGK 29, CBJ 27 |
| Win chance | VGK 62% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 4 | 1.10 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.0 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.9 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.3 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 4 | 0.50 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Fischer | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.