Game Recap: VGK 3, OTT 2, November 21, 2024

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalThu, Nov 21, 2024Every game that night

OTT2

VGK beat OTT 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.26 expected goals to 3.26. OTT outshot VGK 40 to 32. I. Barbashev led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Z. Whitecloud had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. I. Samsonov stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	1	3
OTT	0	0	2	2

1st 6:45VGKJ. Eichel0.51 xG
2nd 10:51VGKB. Howden0.07 xG
3rd 7:17OTTA. GaudettePP0.15 xG
3rd 9:17VGKP. Dorofeyev0.23 xG
3rd 12:38OTTD. Batherson0.15 xG

Team Stats

VGKOTT

32Shots on goal40

5.26Expected goals3.26

55Shot attempts76

275v5 shots on goal33

0/2Power play1/3

30Hits36

23Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes6

8Giveaways20

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 5.26 xGOTT 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK32 on goal, 3 scored

OTT40 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	0	2	2	2	2	2	+1	0	15:34	0:50
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	21:13	3:10
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:30	0:47
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:47	3:13
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:06	0:48
A. Holtz	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	12:34	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	18:52	3:12
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	16:06	3:12
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	14:12	0:00
C. Burke	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:42	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:13	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	8:02	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	5	0	2	24:49	3:20
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	22:41	0:40
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	26:19	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	5	1	4	+1	0	22:11	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:28	0:48
R. Hagg	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	8:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	40	38	2	.950	59:52	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	22:36	2:23
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	21:59	3:38
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	20:43	3:30
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	-1	0	17:37	2:18
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	7:14	2:16
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	6	7	0	-3	0	21:05	3:39
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	2	19:28	3:35
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	16:42	0:05
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:30	0:05
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	13:30	2:18
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:01	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	4:46	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	26:44	3:43
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	0	26:26	2:20
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	22:21	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:25	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	4	9:01	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	8:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	32	29	3	.906	58:20	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael Amadio OTT Faces VGK, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, OTT 3.2	VGK 3, OTT 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	VGK 27.8, OTT 31.9	VGK 32, OTT 40
Win chance	OTT 51%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.9	6	0.93	0	33%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	4	1.08	1	32%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	1	0.60	1	29%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	2	0.81	1	27%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	3	0.98	1	29%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	4	0.59	0	11%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.2	2	0.82	1	28%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.2	3	0.72	0	33%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	5	0.51	0	20%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	1	0.62	1	22%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	4	0.62	0	24%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.9	4	0.56	0	22%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	2	0.72	1	11%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	2	0.48	1	8%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.7	4	0.56	0	19%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	1	0.51	1	11%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	0	0.40	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.40	1	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.61	2	21%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.4	3	0.33	1	15%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.4	1	0.28	1	14%	1
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	1	0.33	1	16%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	0	0.22	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.2	1	0.29	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	2	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.31	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.27	0	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	3	0.27	0	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	0	0.14	0	2%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.9	1	0.13	0	6%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.23	0	7%	0
VGK R. Hagg	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	5	0.21	0	6%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	2	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.