Game Recap: VGK 2, PIT 3 (OT), March 11, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK2

Final/OTTue, Mar 11, 2025Every game that night

PIT3

PIT beat VGK 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.98 expected goals to 2.88. VGK outshot PIT 37 to 17. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Pietrangelo had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. T. Jarry stopped 35 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	0	1	1	0	2
PIT	1	1	0	1	3

1st 17:48PITS. CrosbyPP0.12 xG
2nd 3:02PITS. Crosby0.12 xG
2nd 14:29VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.10 xG
3rd 19:53VGKN. Hanifin0.07 xG
OT 0:49PITE. Karlsson0.03 xG

Team Stats

VGKPIT

37Shots on goal17

2.88Expected goals1.98

77Shot attempts45

325v5 shots on goal13

1/1Power play1/4

10Hits16

9Blocked shots22

8Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways16

10Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.88 xGPIT 1.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK35 on goal, 2 scored

PIT16 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	1	2	6	0	0	-1	0	18:24	0:20
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	20:39	0:20
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	20:20	0:20
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	19:39	0:20
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:34	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:00	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:25	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	14:26	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:47	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:48	0:00
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:02	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3:34	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	22:57	0:20
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	-1	0	23:25	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:56	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:01	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	18:17	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	17	14	3	.824	59:27	OT loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	0	0	23:42	4:50
R. Rakell	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	23:04	3:31
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:12	2:58
K. Hayes	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:08	3:38
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:11	3:33
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	16:56	1:52
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	14:19	0:08
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:19	0:25
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:55	0:23
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:26	2:48
E. Bemstrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	5:21	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	4:06	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	25:42	2:50
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	25:07	4:02
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	23:46	2:35
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:43	0:14
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:41	0:28
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	37	35	2	.946	60:49	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, PIT 2.7	VGK 2, PIT 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	VGK 29.5, PIT 27.0	VGK 37, PIT 17
Win chance	VGK 60%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.1	5	1.11	1	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	6	0.66	2	29%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	4	1.06	2	32%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.6	2	0.80	0	29%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	0	0.74	2	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.68	1	13%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	3	0.76	0	27%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	2	0.55	2	12%	1
PIT K. Letang	2.0	1	0.48	1	11%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	4	0.98	1	28%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.9	0	0.41	1	16%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.8	1	0.71	1	23%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	5	0.47	0	8%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	1	0.49	0	22%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.6	1	0.45	0	16%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.6	0	0.49	0	22%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.54	0	18%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.4	1	0.36	0	13%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.4	2	0.22	0	6%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	0	0.44	0	15%	0
PIT E. Bemstrom	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	4	0.39	0	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.32	0	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.1	0	0.16	0	7%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.33	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.18	0	11%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	1	0.26	0	3%	0
PIT C. Timmins	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
PIT C. Dewar	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.17	0	5%	0
PIT V. Kolyachonok	0.6	1	0.16	0	4%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.3	0	0.06	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.