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Game Recap
VGK3
FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night
PIT2

VGK beat PIT 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 3.44. T. Hertl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Novak had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Hill stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VGK1023
PIT0022
  1. 1st 16:36VGKT. HertlPP0.09 xG
  2. 3rd 1:09PITT. Novak0.51 xG
  3. 3rd 9:58PITR. Rakell0.15 xG
  4. 3rd 11:19VGKT. Connelly0.23 xG
  5. 3rd 19:25VGKT. HertlPP0.24 xG

Team Stats

VGKPIT
23Shots on goal25
2.39Expected goals3.44
40Shot attempts55
135v5 shots on goal19
2/4Power play0/6
29Hits9
18Blocked shots8
12Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways19
7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.39 xGPIT 3.44 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdVGK goal, 16:36PIT goal, 1:09PIT goal, 9:58VGK goal, 11:19VGK goal, 19:25

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK23 on goal, 3 scored
PIT24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC022101-1021:164:31
T. HertlC202350+1015:114:17
M. MarnerRW011301-1021:344:31
M. StoneRW011311-1020:404:31
T. ConnellyLW101410+1214:264:17
W. KarlssonC000210-1018:101:22
B. HowdenC000013-1014:310:00
B. BowmanRW0000000012:581:20
I. BarbashevLW000100-1011:161:20
N. DowdC000040029:200:00
R. LavoieC000020008:370:00
M. GatcombC000040007:520:00
J. LauzonD011061+1616:330:00
B. McNabbD0000440221:580:14
S. TheodoreD000002-1021:241:20
N. HanifinD000102-1020:310:14
R. AnderssonD000303+1019:361:20
D. CoghlanD000200-1012:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill25232.92059:58Win
C. Hart000–0:00

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. NovakC112500+2219:137:15
R. RakellRW101201+2021:148:26
S. CrosbyC000100+2220:308:24
V. KoivunenRW0000000018:508:44
B. LizotteC0003320017:060:05
N. RobertsonLW0003020016:040:05
B. KindelC000010-1014:322:58
C. DewarC0000200014:080:05
A. KuzmenkoLW000000-1012:412:11
E. ChinakhovRW000310-1011:192:09
H. LapierreC0001000210:551:55
J. BrazeauRW000110008:140:00
K. KorczakD022101+2016:470:00
S. StastneyD011100+2014:480:01
E. KarlssonD0002000224:448:30
K. LetangD000210-1019:132:09
S. GirardD0000010018:540:00
D. CarlileD000001-1015:210:13
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs23203.87059:36Loss
S. Murashov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone13:55J. Eichel13:56B. Howden12:49
Line 2B. Bowman11:32T. Hertl10:49T. Connelly10:09
Line 3W. Karlsson10:18I. Barbashev9:56M. Marner10:52
Line 4N. Dowd8:02R. Lavoie8:37M. Gatcomb7:52
Pair 1R. Andersson15:58J. Lauzon14:39
Pair 2B. McNabb14:29S. Theodore12:16
Pair 3N. Hanifin17:17D. Coghlan12:09

PIT

Line 1B. Lizotte12:26C. Dewar11:51N. Robertson11:59
Line 2S. Crosby11:42T. Novak11:47R. Rakell12:10
Line 3A. Kuzmenko10:30B. Kindel10:16E. Chinakhov9:10
Line 4V. Koivunen10:06H. Lapierre9:00J. Brazeau8:14
Pair 1S. Girard16:42E. Karlsson15:03
Pair 2S. Stastney14:12K. Korczak13:18
Pair 3K. Letang15:18D. Carlile11:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 27 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
VGK J. Eichel2.5-115+1001Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+141-1853Over
PIT R. Rakell2.5+105-1102Under
PIT S. Crosby2.5+144-1601Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+136-1703Over
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.5+160–0Under
VGK B. Bowman1.5+165–0Under
VGK B. Howden1.5+108-1450Under
PIT B. Kindel1.5-165+1300Under
PIT B. Lizotte1.5+160–3Over
PIT C. Dewar1.5+160-1970Under
PIT D. Carlile1.5+180–0Under
PIT E. Chinakhov1.5-160+1353Over
PIT E. Karlsson1.5-155+1362Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+125-1401Under
VGK J. Lauzon1.5+160-1900Under
PIT K. Letang1.5+110-1302Over
VGK M. Gatcomb1.5+150–0Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-150+1253Over
VGK N. Hanifin1.5+135-1701Under
PIT N. Robertson1.5+110-1403Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5+110-1403Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-110-1070Under
VGK T. Connelly1.5-115-1084Over
PIT T. Novak1.5-145+1305Over
PIT V. Koivunen1.5+125–0Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-130+1042Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.2, PIT 3.3VGK 3, PIT 2
Total goals6.55
Shots on goalVGK 26.2, PIT 27.6VGK 23, PIT 25
Win chancePIT 53%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PIT R. Rakell2.620.78131%1
VGK J. Eichel2.511.03228%0
PIT S. Crosby2.310.98031%0
PIT B. Kindel2.100.55024%0
VGK M. Marner2.031.01125%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.020.70012%0
PIT E. Chinakhov1.930.52022%0
VGK W. Karlsson1.920.61023%0
VGK M. Stone1.930.91130%0
VGK T. Hertl1.830.59224%2
PIT T. Novak1.850.63224%1
VGK S. Theodore1.700.55012%0
PIT N. Robertson1.630.36018%0
VGK R. Andersson1.630.39011%0
VGK B. Howden1.500.54024%0
VGK T. Connelly1.540.53119%1
VGK I. Barbashev1.410.60020%0
VGK D. Coghlan1.420.1906%0
PIT K. Letang1.420.3807%0
PIT C. Dewar1.300.34015%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.310.36016%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.200.19011%0
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.200.45019%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.210.3006%0
VGK B. McNabb1.100.3106%0
PIT D. Carlile1.100.1906%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.100.38013%0
VGK B. Bowman1.000.39015%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.000.1515%0
PIT H. Lapierre0.910.37012%0
PIT S. Stastney0.910.1814%0
PIT S. Girard0.900.3105%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.930.32012%0
PIT K. Korczak0.810.2924%0
VGK N. Dowd0.700.2109%0

Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.