TOR beat VGK 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 2.17. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. McNabb had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Woll stopped 31 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 8:53TORF. Minten0.25 xG
- 3rd 3:01TORW. NylanderPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:41TORP. HolmbergEN0.57 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.17 xGTOR 3.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:31 | 5:06 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 4:22 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:48 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 4:42 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:16 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:43 | 1:22 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:10 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:50 | 0:02 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:02 |
| C. Burke | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:16 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:40 | 4:28 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:30 | 1:32 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:54 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 59:47 | Loss |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 3:13 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:45 | 2:11 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 16:42 | 2:12 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:09 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:04 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 1:01 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 1:02 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:21 | 0:56 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:48 | 2:04 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:13 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 31 | 31 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:50 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, TOR 3.3 | VGK 0, TOR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 29.1, TOR 30.9 | VGK 31, TOR 26 |
| Win chance | TOR 52% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.6 | 6 | 1.08 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 3 | 1.08 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.5 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.4 | 1 | 1.20 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR A. Steeves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.