VGK beat TOR 6-3, with the chances close: 3.08 expected goals to 2.45. VGK outshot TOR 31 to 21. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Kolesar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Hill stopped 18 of 21.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.08 xGTOR 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:34 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:42 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:27 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:33 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:26 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:18 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:25 | 1:33 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:32 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:27 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:28 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:59 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:30 | 1:58 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:01 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Cowan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 1:01 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:59 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:02 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 30 | 25 | 5 | .833 | 58:20 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
TOR
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.3, TOR 3.2 | VGK 6, TOR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 30.2, TOR 25.2 | VGK 31, TOR 21 |
| Win chance | VGK 51% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.6 | 3 | 1.15 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 3 | 1.08 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.0 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.6 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.4 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 3 | 0.96 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR M. Maccelli | 1.6 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR E. Cowan | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR N. Roy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.9 | 4 | 0.16 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.