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Game Recap
VGK4
UTA1
VGK beat UTA 4-1, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 2.56. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Schmid stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 3:09VGKJ. Eichel0.51 xG
- 2nd 3:28VGKB. Hutton0.11 xG
- 2nd 6:38UTAN. Schmidt0.13 xG
- 2nd 16:51VGKJ. Eichel0.23 xG
- 3rd 0:45VGKB. Bowman0.09 xG
Team Stats
VGKUTA
33Shots on goal26
3.19Expected goals2.56
46Shot attempts59
305v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/2
19Hits24
16Blocked shots9
15Penalty minutes17
13Giveaways10
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.19 xGUTA 2.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:45 | 2:40 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:25 | 3:07 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 2:34 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:46 | 1:02 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:38 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:07 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:20 | 0:02 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:53 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 1:02 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:02 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 11:44 | 0:38 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:34 | 1:31 |
| B. Hutton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:02 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 | 1:35 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:27 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:46 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Schmid | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindbom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:16 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 18:37 | 0:54 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:35 | 1:05 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:05 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:14 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:56 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:57 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:54 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:01 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:01 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:11 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:58 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 21:36 | 1:21 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:01 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:01 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 60:00 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1M. Marner13:46P. Dorofeyev13:33T. Hertl12:23
Line 3B. Bowman12:17I. Barbashev11:47J. Eichel12:04
Line 4C. Reinhardt11:44C. Sissons12:00K. Kolesar11:03
Pair 1B. McNabb16:55S. Theodore17:18
Pair 2Z. Whitecloud17:12N. Hanifin16:54
Pair 3B. Hutton16:19K. Korczak15:04
UTA
Line 1L. Cooley16:35D. Guenther15:41M. Carcone15:11
Line 2C. Keller14:06B. Hayton14:20N. Schmaltz14:34
Line 3L. Crouse10:44J. Peterka10:54J. McBain8:52
Line 4L. O'Brien9:51B. Tanev9:32K. Stenlund8:52
Pair 1I. Cole16:58N. DeSimone17:10
Pair 2M. Sergachev18:21D. Simashev16:05
Pair 3J. Marino16:21N. Schmidt14:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.0, UTA 2.9 | VGK 4, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 25.9, UTA 27.1 | VGK 33, UTA 26 |
| Win chance | VGK 50% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 5 | 1.04 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 6 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 3 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.6 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA D. Simashev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.