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Game Recap
VGK1
UTA5
UTA beat VGK 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.20 expected goals to 4.72. VGK outshot UTA 34 to 23. L. Cooley scored 4 for UTA. Z. Whitecloud had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 33 of 34.
Team Stats
VGKUTA
34Shots on goal23
4.72Expected goals3.20
74Shot attempts52
255v5 shots on goal18
0/3Power play0/2
17Hits19
9Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways12
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 4.72 xGUTA 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:02 | 4:53 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:49 | 4:58 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:10 | 4:55 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:52 | 4:18 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:50 | 4:58 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:05 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 1:02 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 1:02 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:05 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:13 | 1:42 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:01 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindbom | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 58:36 | Loss |
| A. Schmid | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:05 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:46 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:12 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:58 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 2:02 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:50 | 1:33 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:38 | 2:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 2:02 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:22 | 1:46 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:17 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:15 | 2:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:19 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 59:54 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1J. Eichel14:17B. Bowman13:26I. Barbashev13:10
Line 2T. Hertl12:27P. Dorofeyev13:09M. Marner13:45
Line 4C. Sissons10:40C. Reinhardt10:40K. Kolesar9:28
Pair 1B. McNabb17:47S. Theodore16:58
Pair 2B. Hutton16:59K. Korczak15:49
Pair 3N. Hanifin16:40Z. Whitecloud14:24
UTA
Line 1L. Crouse11:47J. Peterka14:40J. McBain13:13
Line 2C. Keller12:48B. Hayton12:06N. Schmaltz11:16
Line 3B. Tanev11:13M. Carcone12:56K. Stenlund12:22
Line 4K. Yamamoto11:42D. Guenther11:58L. Cooley12:11
Pair 1J. Marino18:12N. Schmidt16:45
Pair 2M. Sergachev17:46N. DeSimone19:48
Pair 3I. Cole15:07D. Simashev11:35
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.0, UTA 2.9 | VGK 1, UTA 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.1, UTA 27.4 | VGK 34, UTA 23 |
| Win chance | VGK 51% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.9 | 5 | 1.02 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 5 | 0.70 | 5 | 25% | 4 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.6 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA D. Simashev | 0.9 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.