Game Recap: VGK 2, UTA 4, April 24, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalFri, Apr 24, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

UTA4

UTA beat VGK 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.47 expected goals to 3.27. VGK outshot UTA 32 to 12. L. Crouse led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Vejmelka stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	1	2
UTA	2	2	0	4

1st 12:59UTAM. Weegar0.09 xG
1st 17:45UTAD. GuentherPP0.07 xG
2nd 4:06UTAL. Crouse0.05 xG
2nd 9:48UTAL. Crouse0.02 xG
2nd 13:20VGKJ. Eichel0.05 xG
3rd 16:52VGKN. Dowd0.15 xG

Team Stats

VGKUTA

32Shots on goal12

3.27Expected goals1.47

77Shot attempts45

255v5 shots on goal11

0/4Power play1/1

42Hits41

12Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways23

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.27 xGUTA 1.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK32 on goal, 2 scored

UTA11 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	3	3	2	-1	0	22:23	6:37
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	19:35	5:59
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	1	7	0	-1	0	17:17	1:47
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
N. Dowd	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	9:21	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:39	5:41
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:09	6:09
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:00	5:26
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	15:24	2:01
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	14:20	1:22
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	13:22	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:29	1:11
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-1	2	20:50	1:46
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	19:22	2:01
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	17:15	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+2	0	14:03	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	12	8	4	.667	56:57	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	2	0	2	2	4	0	+2	0	19:17	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	15:33	1:15
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	19:34	1:15
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+2	0	19:26	1:15
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	17:22	1:15
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	16:19	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	2	7:41	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	14:40	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	14:33	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	11:58	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	10:07	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	6:09	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	1	2	1	4	0	+1	2	19:46	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	24:25	1:15
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	20:49	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	0	20:33	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	+1	2	18:18	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:49J. Eichel12:53M. Stone10:48

Line 2T. Hertl11:26K. Kolesar13:22R. Smith13:21

Line 3N. Dowd9:44C. Smith9:21C. Sissons12:50

Line 4M. Marner12:39B. Howden11:31P. Dorofeyev10:15

Pair 1N. Hanifin17:00R. Andersson15:57

Pair 2B. McNabb17:15S. Theodore17:21

Pair 3K. Korczak14:03J. Lauzon13:55

UTA

Line 1D. Guenther14:36L. Cooley15:30K. Yamamoto15:30

Line 2N. Schmaltz13:13L. Crouse13:33C. Keller13:31

Line 3A. Kerfoot11:48J. Peterka11:58M. Carcone10:07

Line 4L. O'Brien7:41K. Stenlund9:02B. Tanev6:09

Pair 1M. Sergachev18:03M. Weegar19:03

Pair 2N. Schmidt15:39J. Marino15:35

Pair 3I. Cole12:38S. Durzi14:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, UTA 3.0	VGK 2, UTA 4
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	VGK 26.9, UTA 25.4	VGK 32, UTA 12
Win chance	VGK 51%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.9	3	1.06	1	30%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	4	0.85	1	33%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	3	0.64	0	30%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.4	0	0.99	2	29%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	0	0.81	1	27%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	0	0.81	1	30%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	2	0.59	0	22%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	1	0.90	1	28%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	4	0.41	0	9%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	2	0.97	0	26%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.52	2	24%	2
UTA J. Peterka	1.8	1	0.55	0	23%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	0	0.39	0	19%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.6	1	0.52	0	8%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	0	0.61	0	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	3	0.38	0	6%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	1	0.39	2	8%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	1	0.58	1	21%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.2	0	0.35	1	15%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	3	0.38	0	18%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.43	0	15%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	0	0.31	1	14%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
UTA S. Durzi	0.9	0	0.28	0	5%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	0.9	2	0.26	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	0	0.13	1	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	1	0.17	1	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.22	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	3	0.23	1	10%	1
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	1	0.20	0	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.6	0	0.33	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.