Game Recap: VGK 5, UTA 4 (OT), April 27, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK5

Final/OTMon, Apr 27, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

UTA4

VGK beat UTA 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.05 expected goals to 2.14. B. Howden led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Keller had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. Hart stopped 27 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	2	1	1	1	5
UTA	0	2	2	0	4

1st 1:12VGKP. Dorofeyev0.17 xG
1st 18:38VGKB. HowdenSH0.20 xG
2nd 3:26VGKC. Smith0.04 xG
2nd 8:04UTAN. Schmaltz0.23 xG
2nd 8:33UTAI. Cole0.03 xG
3rd 1:45UTAM. Carcone0.03 xG
3rd 5:10UTAC. Keller0.05 xG
3rd 10:25VGKB. Howden0.10 xG
OT 19:08VGKS. Theodore0.13 xG

Team Stats

VGKUTA

36Shots on goal31

4.05Expected goals2.14

82Shot attempts68

285v5 shots on goal27

0/4Power play0/3

41Hits57

22Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes6

22Giveaways18

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.05 xGUTA 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK34 on goal, 5 scored

UTA31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	3	3	6	1	0	+3	0	29:22	5:20
B. Howden	C	2	1	3	3	2	0	+1	0	21:54	3:02
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	24:10	4:21
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	6	3	+2	0	23:05	3:14
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:07	4:50
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	9	2	+1	4	17:11	0:10
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	2	16:48	0:05
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	26:26	5:36
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	19:36	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:38	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:39	2:39
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:33	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	29:04	2:43
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	3	0	4	-1	0	33:52	5:46
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	27:39	2:06
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	27:38	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	19:03	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	15:55	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	31	27	4	.871	79:08	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	27:46	4:04
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	1	8	1	0	0	28:56	1:44
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	7	1	1	+1	0	25:40	4:17
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	7	4	0	-1	0	24:34	4:05
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	0	15:07	1:41
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	2	27:58	4:13
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	21:40	1:43
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	9	0	-1	0	18:44	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:52	0:06
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	11:35	0:06
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	10:18	1:49
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:11	0:06
M. Sergachev	D	0	3	3	1	0	2	0	0	30:32	4:02
I. Cole	D	1	0	1	1	3	3	-1	0	21:33	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	0	20:47	0:22
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	27:54	0:06
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	27:29	0:06
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	24:04	1:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	36	31	5	.861	79:08	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel22:11I. Barbashev19:51B. Howden17:18

Line 2M. Stone18:33M. Marner17:39R. Smith17:38

Line 3N. Dowd17:34C. Smith17:01C. Sissons16:06

Line 4K. Kolesar9:05T. Hertl9:00P. Dorofeyev13:17

Pair 1B. McNabb24:26S. Theodore28:00

Pair 2R. Andersson23:04N. Hanifin24:08

Pair 3J. Lauzon15:02K. Korczak15:47

UTA

Line 1L. Crouse22:41N. Schmaltz20:34C. Keller21:15

Line 2L. Cooley22:54D. Guenther20:29K. Yamamoto18:44

Line 3A. Kerfoot16:02M. Carcone13:26J. Peterka8:29

Line 4K. Stenlund11:23B. Tanev11:29L. O'Brien8:05

Pair 1N. Schmidt23:30J. Marino24:33

Pair 2M. Sergachev22:30M. Weegar22:26

Pair 3I. Cole16:52S. Durzi20:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, UTA 3.0	VGK 5, UTA 4
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	VGK 27.1, UTA 24.6	VGK 36, UTA 31
Win chance	VGK 52%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	6	1.09	3	31%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.7	7	0.85	1	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	4	0.64	1	30%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.3	7	0.97	1	28%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	2	0.82	2	27%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	1	0.62	0	24%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	2	0.82	0	30%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	4	0.91	0	28%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	0	0.40	0	9%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	2	0.98	1	26%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	1	0.54	1	25%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.7	0	0.52	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	1	0.37	2	6%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.6	3	0.50	1	8%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	1	0.61	3	10%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	3	0.39	0	8%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	4	0.37	1	18%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	0	0.59	1	21%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.36	0	15%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	3	0.23	0	4%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	3	0.37	3	18%	2
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	0	0.27	1	11%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.42	0	15%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.14	0	3%	0
UTA S. Durzi	0.9	0	0.28	1	6%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	0.9	2	0.25	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.8	0	0.14	0	6%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	2	0.17	1	7%	1
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	4	0.23	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	1	0.21	1	3%	1
UTA B. Tanev	0.6	0	0.12	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.6	0	0.33	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.