Game Recap: VGK 5, UTA 1, May 1, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK5

FinalFri, May 1, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

UTA1

VGK beat UTA 5-1, with the chances close: 2.29 expected goals to 2.52. M. Marner led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Marner had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hart stopped 22 of 23.

Team Stats

VGKUTA

26Shots on goal23

2.29Expected goals2.52

54Shot attempts62

235v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play0/3

32Hits38

17Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways20

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.29 xGUTA 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK24 on goal, 4 scored

UTA22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	2	1	3	7	0	1	+3	0	17:19	1:18
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	17:13	1:22
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	2	17:04	0:57
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	6	0	+2	0	15:56	0:00
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+2	0	15:54	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	15:14	1:19
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:18	0:54
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:13	1:21
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	15:11	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:23	0:53
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	10:05	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+2	0	24:47	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	24:30	1:12
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	23:36	1:03
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	11:42	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	20:55	0:56
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	23	22	1	.957	59:32	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	9:42	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	7	2	2	-2	0	20:40	4:52
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	20:37	4:50
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	18:00	1:03
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:19	4:48
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:11	4:48
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	0	17:01	1:10
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:36	1:12
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	15:01	1:08
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	14:42	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:42	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	9:24	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	-1	0	22:28	4:54
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	0	6	1	-1	0	19:12	0:57
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:43	0:09
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:33	0:09
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:51	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	25	21	4	.840	59:21	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev16:06J. Eichel14:35P. Dorofeyev15:31

Line 2C. Sissons13:39C. Smith13:39N. Dowd12:43

Line 3M. Stone13:11M. Marner13:29B. Howden12:13

Line 4R. Smith9:17T. Hertl9:30K. Kolesar7:31

Pair 1B. McNabb20:00S. Theodore21:18

Pair 2N. Hanifin20:17R. Andersson18:46

Pair 3J. Lauzon10:39K. Korczak10:46

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:27C. Keller14:42L. Crouse14:33

Line 2M. Carcone15:50J. Peterka14:24A. Kerfoot13:45

Line 3D. Guenther11:44L. Cooley11:14K. Yamamoto9:42

Line 4K. Stenlund12:28B. Tanev9:24J. McBain9:42

Pair 1N. Schmidt16:38J. Marino18:35

Pair 2M. Weegar18:15M. Sergachev15:58

Pair 3I. Cole16:35S. Durzi15:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, UTA 3.1	VGK 5, UTA 1
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	VGK 28.1, UTA 25.5	VGK 26, UTA 23
Win chance	VGK 52%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	0	1.25	1	34%	0
UTA D. Guenther	3.3	1	0.97	0	37%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	1	0.71	0	33%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.8	7	1.12	0	32%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.6	0	0.95	0	31%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	1	0.92	0	33%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	1	1.06	1	32%	0
VGK R. Andersson	2.2	1	0.45	0	10%	0
UTA L. Crouse	2.2	0	0.66	0	29%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.68	1	12%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	7	1.03	3	27%	2
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	2	0.59	0	23%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	0	0.46	1	8%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	2	0.74	1	11%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	1	0.42	0	20%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.7	0	0.44	1	9%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	2	0.71	1	24%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.5	0	0.49	0	21%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.5	3	0.26	1	5%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	1	0.40	0	17%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.47	1	22%	1
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	1	0.28	1	12%	1
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.2	2	0.39	1	17%	1
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	1	0.47	0	16%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	0	0.15	0	3%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.30	0	7%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	1	0.29	0	11%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.0	1	0.32	0	6%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.9	1	0.21	1	9%	1
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	2	0.27	0	12%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	2	0.28	0	13%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.23	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	2	0.24	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	0	0.40	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.6	1	0.17	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.