Game Recap: VGK 2, WSH 3, February 27, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalFri, Feb 27, 2026Every game that night

WSH3

WSH beat VGK 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.73 expected goals to 4.16. P. Dubois led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Dubois had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Thompson stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	0	2	2
WSH	0	3	0	3

2nd 0:49WSHP. Dubois0.08 xG
2nd 3:23WSHP. Dubois0.21 xG
2nd 14:52WSHJ. Chychrun0.07 xG
3rd 2:27VGKB. Bowman0.30 xG
3rd 9:15VGKT. HertlPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

VGKWSH

26Shots on goal30

4.16Expected goals2.73

65Shot attempts55

175v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play0/5

20Hits17

12Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways19

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.16 xGWSH 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK25 on goal, 2 scored

WSH29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:50	3:27
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	18:26	3:29
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:24	3:19
B. Bowman	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	11:18	1:29
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:46	3:31
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	20:40	3:26
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	15:14	1:34
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:08	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:28	0:01
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	11:06	1:30
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:04	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	0	6	2	0	0	17:37	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	13:02	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	20:46	1:40
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	20:35	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:04	1:34
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	19:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	30	27	3	.900	58:09	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dubois	C	2	1	3	6	0	1	+3	0	19:37	3:52
A. Protas	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+3	0	19:38	0:41
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	0	21:58	5:21
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	17:43	7:37
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:26	5:55
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:13	0:06
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:03	3:12
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	14:42	5:36
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:48	0:09
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:58	3:24
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:59	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	2	2	2	2	2	+3	0	21:30	3:18
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	6	0	2	+1	0	24:43	5:59
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	+1	0	22:04	0:13
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	20:20	1:05
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:54	0:06
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	26	24	2	.923	59:49	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone14:19J. Eichel13:09I. Barbashev13:40

Line 2M. Marner12:03P. Dorofeyev11:08R. Smith11:41

Line 3T. Hertl11:16K. Kolesar9:30B. Bowman9:37

Line 4B. Saad9:39A. Holtz8:02C. Sissons7:19

Pair 1N. Hanifin17:03R. Andersson14:52

Pair 2S. Theodore15:38J. Lauzon15:02

Pair 3B. McNabb12:10K. Korczak13:02

WSH

Line 1A. Protas15:46T. Wilson13:02P. Dubois14:31

Line 2D. Strome10:29A. Beauvillier12:49A. Ovechkin10:06

Line 3N. Dowd11:15B. Duhaime9:36E. Frank7:32

Line 4R. Leonard9:06J. Sourdif7:59C. McMichael8:59

Pair 1R. Sandin17:00M. Fehérváry16:21

Pair 2J. Chychrun17:51M. Roy14:54

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk10:58D. Chisholm10:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNic Dowd VGK First game back in Washington, his team until Mar 20260 SOG
Old teamLogan Thompson WSH Faces VGK, his team until May 202424 saves on 26, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, WSH 3.1	VGK 2, WSH 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	VGK 28.0, WSH 26.3	VGK 26, WSH 30
Win chance	VGK 51%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	1	1.02	0	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	1	0.61	1	29%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	6	0.68	1	21%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.6	3	0.82	0	33%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	3	0.67	1	25%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	1	0.41	0	18%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	1	0.92	0	26%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.0	2	0.56	0	17%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.9	1	0.79	0	29%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	2	0.71	2	24%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	4	0.43	0	12%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	1	0.93	1	24%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	0	0.59	0	11%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	2	0.83	0	25%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	0	0.56	0	20%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	3	0.40	0	9%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.6	1	0.57	0	21%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	1	0.33	0	16%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.6	3	0.48	0	19%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.58	0	21%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.5	6	0.59	3	20%	2
VGK R. Smith	1.3	3	0.39	0	16%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	0	0.27	0	12%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	1	0.43	1	13%	1
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	2	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	1	0.32	0	12%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.24	0	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	2	0.32	2	5%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.22	1	5%	0
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	0	0.33	0	14%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.30	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	0	0.21	1	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.