Game Recap: WSH 3, OTT 4, January 1, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH3

FinalThu, Jan 1, 2026Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat WSH 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 2.41. T. Wilson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Perron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. L. Meriläinen stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	0	1	3
OTT	0	2	2	4

1st 8:13WSHT. Wilson0.60 xG
1st 18:59WSHD. StromePP0.05 xG
2nd 7:42OTTN. Jensen0.03 xG
2nd 19:31OTTR. Greig0.15 xG
3rd 2:47OTTD. Perron0.14 xG
3rd 15:53WSHA. Protas0.14 xG
3rd 17:38OTTF. Zetterlund0.15 xG

Team Stats

WSHOTT

29Shots on goal32

2.41Expected goals3.61

52Shot attempts66

205v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play0/4

15Hits32

19Blocked shots14

17Penalty minutes17

9Giveaways17

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.41 xGOTT 3.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH28 on goal, 3 scored

OTT32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	1	2	3	3	1	+1	0	22:51	4:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	5	13:25	1:59
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-3	2	18:47	3:16
A. Protas	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	14:55	0:09
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	12:58	4:23
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	18:21	2:11
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:29	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-2	2	16:33	5:49
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	15:27	0:46
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:34	1:40
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:37	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	7:12	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	23:25	4:10
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	-1	0	23:15	1:58
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	21:38	0:19
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:05	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-2	0	16:04	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	11:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	32	28	4	.875	57:45	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	18:54	3:05
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	21:23	4:19
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	16:06	0:04
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	15:08	0:04
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	5	4	0	+1	2	12:35	3:15
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	10:30	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	6:54	2:46
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	6:43	0:04
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	18:16	4:05
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	17:45	3:43
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:56	2:43
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	5	16:07	3:34
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	25:44	3:50
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	22:54	3:17
N. Jensen	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+2	2	18:10	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	18:55	0:04
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:23	0:17
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1N. Dowd12:59A. Beauvillier13:42R. Leonard8:23

Line 2T. Wilson12:24C. McMichael13:32J. Sourdif9:37

Line 3D. Strome12:22A. Protas8:49A. Ovechkin8:35

Line 4B. Duhaime7:56E. Frank9:42H. Lapierre7:12

Pair 1J. Carlson14:35R. Sandin15:43

Pair 2J. Chychrun14:56M. Roy17:02

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk9:13M. Fehérváry11:53

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio14:03S. Pinto11:47C. Giroux9:23

Line 2D. Batherson11:47D. Cozens12:56B. Tkachuk12:22

Line 3F. Zetterlund10:07T. Stützle11:13

Line 4R. Greig11:11N. Cousins6:39S. Halliday4:08

Pair 1N. Jensen16:03T. Chabot16:39

Pair 2J. Sanderson13:19A. Zub12:24

Pair 3T. Kleven11:51J. Spence13:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJakob Chychrun WSH Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20241 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, OTT 3.1	WSH 3, OTT 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	WSH 25.1, OTT 29.1	WSH 29, OTT 32
Win chance	OTT 55%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	3	0.82	0	32%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	4	0.88	0	36%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	2	0.59	1	19%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	2	0.97	1	29%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	1	0.84	0	28%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	4	0.65	0	22%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	3	0.78	2	30%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.1	2	0.45	1	19%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.64	1	13%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.0	0	0.50	1	16%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	2	0.38	0	16%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	1	0.53	2	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	0	0.56	0	21%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	0	0.56	1	12%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	3	0.65	1	22%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.8	4	0.87	1	26%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	2	0.64	0	20%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.6	2	0.53	0	10%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	5	0.50	1	20%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.5	4	0.37	1	15%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	0	0.44	1	20%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	1	0.36	2	16%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	1	0.41	0	6%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.2	2	0.39	0	16%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.1	0	0.27	0	5%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.0	1	0.29	1	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.31	0	14%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.27	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	3	0.26	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	1	0.23	1	10%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	2	0.20	1	4%	1
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.6	0	0.16	0	8%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	2	0.20	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.