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Game Recap
WSH4
FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night
PHI1

WSH beat PHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.02 expected goals to 1.85. WSH outshot PHI 29 to 18. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Carlson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Lindgren stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WSH2024
PHI0011
  1. 1st 3:49WSHN. DowdSH0.17 xG
  2. 1st 15:07WSHA. MangiapaneSH0.14 xG
  3. 3rd 0:34PHIT. Sanheim0.04 xG
  4. 3rd 1:38WSHJ. Carlson0.05 xG
  5. 3rd 14:07WSHJ. Chychrun0.05 xG

Team Stats

WSHPHI
29Shots on goal18
2.02Expected goals1.85
55Shot attempts46
195v5 shots on goal13
0/5Power play0/3
20Hits23
16Blocked shots12
13Penalty minutes17
13Giveaways14
11Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.02 xGPHI 1.85 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdWSH goal, 3:49WSH goal, 15:07PHI goal, 0:34WSH goal, 1:38WSH goal, 14:07

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH28 on goal, 4 scored
PHI18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McMichaelLW022000+2014:332:30
D. StromeC011201+1016:476:06
N. DowdC101241+2015:480:16
B. DuhaimeLW011242+2013:560:03
A. MangiapaneLW101301+1013:033:04
J. VranaLW011000+1010:570:08
A. OvechkinLW0003200219:579:35
T. WilsonRW000211-1019:246:30
P. DuboisC000310-1218:567:06
A. ProtasLW0002000013:090:00
H. LapierreC0001010012:213:53
T. RaddyshRW0000010012:200:12
J. CarlsonD101512+3025:527:04
J. ChychrunD101410+1419:282:56
M. FehérváryD011031+3018:320:00
T. van RiemsdykD0000040020:400:37
R. SandinD000011-1016:090:00
D. McIlrathD0000200510:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Lindgren18171.94460:00Win
L. Thompson000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MichkovRW0110000019:563:50
T. KonecnyRW0002000618:353:37
O. TippettRW000210-1018:193:56
S. CouturierC000011-2017:431:56
S. LaughtonC000351-4017:332:03
R. PoehlingC000002+1216:070:06
M. FrostC000112-1013:543:32
J. FarabeeLW000010-2012:361:54
G. HathawayRW0000400012:190:16
N. CatesLW0000100011:310:52
B. BrinkRW000200-228:571:26
N. DeslauriersLW000120056:010:12
C. YorkD011112+1021:290:20
T. SanheimD101211+1021:070:13
E. ZamulaD000121-3019:522:21
R. RistolainenD0000100018:360:00
J. DrysdaleD000101-2017:553:26
N. SeelerD000221-1215:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson29254.86260:00Loss
I. Fedotov000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWSH 2.9, PHI 3.1WSH 4, PHI 1
Total goals6.05
Shots on goalWSH 23.9, PHI 32.6WSH 29, PHI 18
Win chancePHI 55%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PHI O. Tippett3.520.70027%0
PHI T. Konecny3.020.95032%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.830.89035%0
WSH J. Carlson2.250.80116%1
WSH J. Chychrun2.140.52114%1
WSH T. Wilson2.120.66028%0
PHI M. Frost2.110.65019%0
PHI M. Michkov2.100.66122%0
WSH D. Strome1.920.94129%0
PHI S. Couturier1.900.41013%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.820.41111%1
PHI J. Farabee1.700.50018%0
WSH C. McMichael1.700.47220%0
PHI S. Laughton1.730.49016%0
PHI C. York1.710.39111%0
WSH P. Dubois1.630.61023%0
WSH A. Protas1.520.42011%0
WSH A. Mangiapane1.530.52120%1
WSH J. Vrana1.400.40119%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.410.2907%0
PHI R. Poehling1.400.40015%0
PHI N. Seeler1.420.1804%0
PHI N. Cates1.300.41014%0
PHI B. Brink1.320.41014%0
WSH T. Raddysh1.300.29014%0
PHI G. Hathaway1.300.31013%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.200.1804%0
WSH B. Duhaime1.120.21111%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk1.100.2604%0
PHI E. Zamula1.010.3107%0
WSH N. Dowd1.020.42119%1
WSH M. Fehérváry1.000.2718%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.910.39014%0
WSH R. Sandin0.900.3607%0
PHI N. Deslauriers0.610.0905%0
WSH D. McIlrath0.400.1402%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.