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Game Recap
WSH7
UTA4
WSH beat UTA 7-4 despite fewer good chances: 3.10 expected goals to 5.64. UTA outshot WSH 40 to 25. A. Ovechkin scored three for WSH. D. Guenther had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. L. Thompson stopped 36 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| UTA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 2:07WSHI. Miroshnichenko0.01 xG
- 1st 13:04UTAD. GuentherPP0.12 xG
- 1st 16:59UTAD. Guenther0.31 xG
- 1st 19:53UTAL. CooleyPP0.64 xG
- 2nd 5:01WSHA. Ovechkin0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:28WSHA. Ovechkin0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:43WSHA. BeauvillierPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 6:02WSHR. Sandin0.04 xG
- 3rd 8:06UTAM. Weegar0.04 xG
- 3rd 9:54WSHI. Miroshnichenko0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:54WSHA. OvechkinEN0.65 xG
Team Stats
WSHUTA
25Shots on goal40
3.10Expected goals5.64
50Shot attempts87
205v5 shots on goal25
1/3Power play2/4
19Hits20
17Blocked shots10
32Penalty minutes50
15Giveaways15
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.10 xGUTA 5.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:27 | 5:46 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 18:07 | 3:16 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:24 | 0:36 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 2:40 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 3:11 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:22 | 3:58 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:30 | 1:56 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 21 | 11:41 | 2:05 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 5 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 20:22 | 3:20 |
| R. Sandin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:08 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 2:34 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 23:36 | 5:21 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 5:20 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:54 | 5:22 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 4:49 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:26 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:26 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 17 | 10:11 | 0:33 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 10:05 | 0:03 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:29 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 17 | 6:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 26:55 | 5:28 |
| M. Weegar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:27 | 0:39 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 23 | 17 | 6 | .739 | 49:54 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 7:17 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1D. Strome12:36A. Protas13:45A. Ovechkin10:57
Line 2A. Beauvillier13:46J. Sourdif11:53R. Leonard11:24
Line 3P. Dubois10:45C. McMichael11:06T. Wilson7:56
Line 4H. Lapierre9:14I. Miroshnichenko9:45B. Duhaime8:42
Pair 1M. Fehérváry15:51R. Sandin16:00
Pair 2T. Riemsdyk15:48J. Chychrun15:32
UTA
Line 1D. Guenther13:14L. Cooley12:24D. But8:39
Line 2N. Schmaltz13:09C. Keller15:48L. Crouse7:35
Line 3M. Carcone13:29J. Peterka12:24J. McBain9:51
Line 4A. Kerfoot9:08K. Stenlund10:18B. Tanev5:43
Pair 1M. Weegar16:33M. Sergachev15:43
Pair 2J. Marino16:04N. Schmidt13:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, UTA 3.0 | WSH 7, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.6, UTA 27.6 | WSH 25, UTA 40 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 8 | 0.80 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 4 | 0.95 | 3 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.73 | 3 | 32% | 3 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 0 | 0.55 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.61 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.5 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 3 | 0.17 | 2 | 7% | 2 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.