Game Recap: ANA 4, PIT 3 (SO), December 9, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA4

Final/SOTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

PIT3

ANA beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.99 expected goals to 6.16. PIT outshot ANA 47 to 28. B. Sennecke led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Novak had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. V. Husso stopped 44 of 47.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
ANA	0	2	1	1	4
PIT	1	1	1	0	3

1st 9:49PITN. Acciari0.04 xG
2nd 5:19ANAJ. LaCombe0.04 xG
2nd 14:10ANAT. Terry0.11 xG
2nd 19:41PITT. Novak0.15 xG
3rd 16:05PITA. ManthaPP0.09 xG
3rd 19:59ANAB. Sennecke0.05 xG

Team Stats

ANAPIT

28Shots on goal47

1.99Expected goals6.16

51Shot attempts89

205v5 shots on goal33

0/1Power play1/5

24Hits11

17Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways19

7Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.99 xGPIT 6.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA28 on goal, 3 scored

PIT47 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Sennecke	RW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	18:56	1:02
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:32	1:02
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:39	0:58
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:41	0:58
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:43	1:02
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	17:36	0:58
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:10	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	4	16:41	0:58
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	12:06	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:48	0:54
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:31	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	+1	0	29:19	0:58
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	24:37	0:08
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	10	3	-1	0	19:39	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:37	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:19	1:02
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	47	44	3	.936	62:47	Win
V. Buteyets	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	22:54	6:38
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:11	5:35
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	-2	0	18:42	2:13
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:51	0:01
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:22	0:01
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	0	22:33	5:35
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	19:23	4:11
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:46	2:29
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:38	2:16
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:46	1:20
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	11:58	0:01
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	5	0	1	-2	0	28:07	6:05
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	18:42	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	25:08	2:18
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	19:21	0:08
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:54	0:01
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:45	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	28	26	3	.929	64:48	OT loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish15:33C. Gauthier15:32B. Sennecke15:22

Line 2C. Kreider12:39L. Carlsson13:23T. Terry12:32

Line 3M. Granlund13:59R. Poehling11:53R. Johnston12:06

Line 4A. Killorn9:14R. Strome8:25F. Vatrano7:09

Pair 1J. LaCombe20:05J. Trouba18:30

Pair 2R. Gudas15:56O. Zellweger15:15

Pair 3D. Helleson15:54P. Mintyukov13:28

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby13:39T. Novak14:06B. Rust13:35

Line 2K. Hayes13:18J. Brazeau12:22A. Mantha13:25

Line 3V. Koivunen13:17B. Kindel12:13R. McGroarty11:53

Line 4D. Heinen11:00N. Acciari9:50C. Dewar9:37

Pair 1K. Letang19:03R. Shea17:07

Pair 2E. Karlsson18:31P. Wotherspoon16:49

Pair 3C. Clifton13:40R. Graves13:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.0, PIT 3.2	ANA 4, PIT 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	ANA 29.2, PIT 29.7	ANA 28, PIT 47
Win chance	PIT 52%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.3	3	0.82	1	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	0	1.14	1	37%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	6	0.85	0	32%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.5	2	0.84	1	27%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	5	0.80	2	15%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.4	2	0.73	0	36%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.3	5	0.46	0	22%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.3	1	0.89	0	29%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	1	0.62	0	22%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.0	1	0.41	0	20%	0
PIT K. Hayes	2.0	1	0.46	0	19%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	3	0.47	0	9%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.9	4	0.72	2	21%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	4	0.54	1	11%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.33	0	9%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	4	0.63	1	24%	1
ANA M. Granlund	1.7	2	0.66	0	17%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	6	0.56	1	21%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	2	0.43	0	19%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.5	5	0.35	0	15%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.33	1	14%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	0	0.29	0	6%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	1	0.45	0	19%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	1	0.36	0	11%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.2	4	0.33	0	10%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.2	0	0.40	0	16%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	2	0.37	0	14%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.1	1	0.28	0	4%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	1	0.20	0	3%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	0	0.29	0	6%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	1	0.19	1	10%	1
PIT R. Shea	0.9	0	0.25	1	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	1	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.