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Game Recap
CBJ3
PHI0
CBJ beat PHI 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 2.99. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Konecny had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Greaves stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 2:32CBJD. Fabbro0.04 xG
- 2nd 17:01CBJK. JohnsonPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 13:26CBJA. Fantilli0.08 xG
Team Stats
CBJPHI
34Shots on goal29
2.39Expected goals2.99
67Shot attempts56
315v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play0/3
15Hits33
9Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes4
9Giveaways16
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.39 xGPHI 2.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 1:37 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:40 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:49 | 0:10 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:57 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:41 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:15 | 0:27 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:30 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:43 | 1:57 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:03 | 0:10 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:26 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 4:10 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 3:43 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 4:09 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:59 | 4:12 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:56 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:44 | 4:04 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 2:09 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:51 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:48 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Dorwart | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:10 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:47 | 1:48 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 59:34 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.3, PHI 3.3 | CBJ 3, PHI 0 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.7, PHI 30.0 | CBJ 34, PHI 29 |
| Win chance | CBJ 50% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI M. Michkov | 3.1 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.9 | 5 | 0.88 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 6 | 0.95 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.3 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.1 | 5 | 0.61 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.